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Pt. I An Increased Incumbency Effect: Reconsidering Evidence
1 An Increased Incumbency Effect and American Politics 3
2 The Consensus about a Greater Incumbency Effect 11
3 The Trend in Incumbent Vote Percentages 18
4 Cumulative Career Changes 32
5 The Retirement Slump 53
Pt. II Realignment and the Fortunes of (Some) Incumbents
6 An Alternative Framework: The Role of Realignment 67
7 A Partisan View of Incumbent Percentages 88
8 The Role of Realignment 99
9 Conclusions and Implications 112
Pt. III Appendices: More Detailed Analyses of Incumbency Effect Indicators
Appendix A Realignment and the Retirement Slump: A Closer Look 119
Appendix B The Gelman-King Analysis 130
Appendix C The Data Set 151
Bibliography 157
Index 167
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