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Preface | vii | |
I | Overview | 1 |
II | Economic Growth in Turkey, 1960-2000 | 3 |
Recent Growth and Volatility Trends | 4 | |
Correlates of Growth | 5 | |
Cross-Country Regression Analysis | 9 | |
Sources of Policy Volatility | 13 | |
Conclusions | 15 | |
III | Turkey's Inflation Process | 17 |
The Importance of Inflation Expectations | 17 | |
What Determines Inflation Expectations? | 19 | |
Conclusions and Challenges | 20 | |
IV | Balance Sheet Developments Since the Crisis | 22 |
The Effect of Crisis and Recovery on External Assets and Liabilities | 22 | |
Resolution of the Crisis and Recovery of Balance Sheets in Each Sector | 24 | |
Main Links Between Sectoral Balance Sheets and Associated Risks | 30 | |
Conclusions and Policy Implications | 32 | |
V | How Much Debt Is Too Much? | 33 |
Main Features of Turkey's Public Debt | 33 | |
Deterministic Debt Sustainability Exercise | 35 | |
Stochastic Debt Sustainability Exercise | 35 | |
Fiscal Track Record Approach | 36 | |
Empirical Debt Sustainability | 36 | |
Fiscal Dominance of Monetary Policy | 37 | |
Other Considerations | 38 | |
Conclusions | 38 | |
VI | Progress and Challenges in Public Debt Management | 39 |
Improved Debt Structure | 41 | |
Challenges Ahead for Debt Management | 42 | |
VII | Lessons from an Empirical Model of Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets | 43 |
Debt Sustainability and the Primary Surplus | 43 | |
The Empirical Model | 43 | |
Key Results | 44 | |
The Case of Turkey | 46 | |
Conclusions | 48 | |
VIII | Sustainability of the Fiscal Adjustment | 49 |
Fiscal Adjustments | 49 | |
Defining a "Successful" Adjustment Episode | 50 | |
Conclusions | 53 | |
IX | Bank Restructuring and Financial Sector Reform | 54 |
Crisis Outbreak and Containment | 54 | |
Bank Restructuring Strategy | 55 | |
Outcome of the Bank Rehabilitation Program | 58 | |
Challenges Ahead | 59 | |
Lessons Learned | 62 | |
X | Labor Market Developments | 64 |
Labor Supply | 64 | |
Labor Demand | 67 | |
Labor Market Regulation | 69 | |
XI | Conclusions | 70 |
References | 72 | |
Boxes | ||
9.1 | Elements of the Bank Recapitalization Program | 57 |
9.2 | The Imar Commission Report | 60 |
9.3 | Priority Areas for Legal Reform | 61 |
Tables | ||
2.1 | Real Per Capita GDP Growth, 1960-2000 | 5 |
2.2 | Growth Accounting, 1961-2000 | 6 |
2.3 | Summary Statistics, Selected Variables | 7 |
2.4 | Cross-Country Growth Difference Regressions | 11 |
2.5 | Additional Cross-Country Growth Difference Regressions | 11 |
2.6 | Decomposition of Turkey's 20-Year Growth Differential | 12 |
2.7 | Decomposition of Turkey's Decadal Growth Differentials | 14 |
2.8 | Cross-Country Difference Regressions with Assorted Dependent Variables | 14 |
2.9 | Cross-Country Fiscal Volatility Regressions | 15 |
3.1 | Determinants of Inflationary Expectations | 20 |
4.1 | Extent of Liability Dollarization in Turkey's Economy, end-2003 | 24 |
4.2 | Foreign Currency Mismatch in the Banking Sector | 25 |
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