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Acknowledgments | xi | |
Chapter 1 | The Changing Face of Asymmetric Warfare and Terrorism | 1 |
The Growing Focus on Terrorism | 7 | |
Terrorism versus Asymmetric Warfare | 8 | |
Chapter 2 | Risk Assessment: Planning for "Non-patterns" and Potential Risk | 11 |
Looking Beyond Emotional Definitions of Terrorism | 11 | |
Rethinking the Mid- and Long-term Risk of Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Attack | 13 | |
Patterns and Non-patterns in the Number of Attacks | 16 | |
Casualties versus Incidents: The Lack of Correlation | 16 | |
U.S. and American Casualties versus International Casualties | 20 | |
Considering the Threat from State and Non-state Actors | 25 | |
States, "Terrorists," and Acts of War | 25 | |
Planning for Major Attacks and Asymmetric Warfare by State Actors | 31 | |
The Threat of "Proxies" and "Networks" | 32 | |
Dealing with Nuance and Complex Motives | 32 | |
Consideration of the Full Spectrum of Possible Types and Methods of Attack: The Need to Consider "Worst Cases" | 33 | |
Making Offense, Deterrence, Denial, Defense, and Retaliation Part of Homeland Defense | 34 | |
Linking Homeland Defense to Counterproliferation | 36 | |
Chapter 3 | Threat Prioritization: Seeking to Identify Current and Future Threats | 39 |
Potential State Actors | 39 | |
A Department of State Assessment of State Threats | 40 | |
A Department of Defense Assessment of Threats from Foreign States | 45 | |
The Probable Lack of Well-Defined Strategic Warning of a Threat from State Actors and Unpredictable Behavior in a Crisis | 49 | |
Foreign Terrorists and Extremists | 51 | |
Continuing Threats and Counterterrorist Action | 54 | |
Major Foreign Terrorist Groups and Extremists | 57 | |
Threats from Foreign Students and Immigrants | 74 | |
Domestic Terrorists and Extremists | 76 | |
The Implications of Past Terrorist Attacks | 80 | |
Probability versus Probability Theory | 85 | |
Chapter 4 | Types of Attack: Determining Future Methods of Attack and the Needed Response | 89 |
Illustrative Attack Scenarios | 92 | |
"Conventional" Means of Attack | 96 | |
Weapons of Mass Destruction | 97 | |
Chemical Weapons As Means of Attack | 101 | |
The Impact and Variety of Possible Chemical Weapons | 108 | |
The probable Lethality and Effectiveness of Chemical Attacks | 109 | |
Methods of Delivery | 117 | |
Detection and Interception | 118 | |
Acquiring Chemical Weapons | 119 | |
The Impact of Technological Change | 122 | |
The Aum Shinrikyo Case Study | 122 | |
Political and Psychological Effects | 124 | |
The Problem of Response | 125 | |
Biological Weapons As Means of Attack | 128 | |
Categorizing the Biological Threat | 135 | |
Case Studies: Iraq and Russia | 142 | |
State Actor, Proxy, and Terrorist/Extremist Incidents to Date | 147 | |
The Yugoslav Smallpox Incident | 150 | |
Cases in the United States | 150 | |
The Lethality and Effectiveness of Current Biological Weapons | 151 | |
Means of Delivery | 160 | |
Manufacturing Biological Weapons | 161 | |
Changes in Technology and the Difficulty of Manufacture | 166 | |
The Growing Lethality of Biological Weapons and Growing Ease of Manufacture | 168 | |
New Types of Biological Weapons | 169 | |
Changes in Disease: Piggybacking on the Threat from Nature | 170 | |
Agricultural and Ecological Attacks | 174 | |
The Problem of Response | 177 | |
Radiological Weapons As Means of Attack | 194 | |
The Practical Chances of Using Radiological Weapons | 195 | |
The Practical Risks and Effects of Using Radiological Weapons | 196 | |
Nuclear Weapons As Means of Attack | 199 | |
Lethality and Effectiveness | 207 | |
Is There a Threat from State Actors, Proxies, Terrorists, and Extremists? The Problem of Getting the Weapon | 216 | |
The Problem of Delivery | 222 | |
Dealing with the Risk and Impact of Nuclear Attacks | 222 | |
Chapter 5 | Threat Assessment and Prioritization: Identifying Threats | 237 |
Dr. Pangloss versus Chicken Little and the Boy Who Cried Wolf | 238 | |
The Problem of Detection, Warning, and Response | 239 | |
Living with Complexity and Uncertainty: A Flexible and Evolutionary Approach | 239 | |
The "Morning After," Multiple Attacks; The "Morning After" and the "Learning Curve Effect" | 242 | |
Chapter 6 | U.S. Government Efforts to Create a Homeland Defense Capability | 245 |
Key Presidential Decision Directives and Legislation Affecting the Federal Response | 247 | |
Ongoing Changes in the Structure of the Federal Effort | 249 | |
The Growth of the Federal Effort | 250 | |
The FY2000 Program | 251 | |
The FY2001 Program | 253 | |
The Details of the Federal Effort | 254 | |
The Changing Patterns in Federal Spending | 255 | |
Planning and Programming the Overall Federal Effort | 261 | |
Antiterrorism, Counterterrorism, and Core Spending | 264 | |
Spending on Preparedness for Attacks Using Weapons of Mass Destruction | 269 | |
Chapter 7 | Federal Efforts by Department and Agency | 275 |
Department of Agriculture | 276 | |
National Animal Health Emergency Program | 276 | |
Central Intelligence Agency | 277 | |
Department of Commerce | 289 | |
Department of Defense | 289 | |
Analyzing the Role of the DOD | 291 | |
The Size of the Current DOD Effort | 295 | |
Dedicated FY2001 DOD Expenditures for CBRN/WMD Homeland Defense | 297 | |
Key DOD Activities | 300 | |
Antiterrorism and Force Protection | 303 | |
Counterterrorism | 306 | |
Terrorism Consequence Management | 307 | |
Specialized DOD Teams and Units for Defense and Response | 318 | |
Research and Development | 323 | |
Intelligence | 324 | |
Counterforce Capability against an Adversary's Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Infrastructures | 324 | |
The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program | 327 | |
Conclusions | 328 | |
Department of Energy | 329 | |
Office of Nonproliferation and National Security | 329 | |
Office of Emergency Management | 330 | |
Office of Defense Programs | 330 | |
Office of Emergency Response | 330 | |
Nuclear Emergency Search Team | 330 | |
Radiological Assistance Program | 330 | |
The Nuclear Safeguards, Security, and Emergency Operations Program | 331 | |
Research and Development | 331 | |
Environmental Protection Agency | 331 | |
Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response | 332 | |
On-Scene Coordinator | 332 | |
Federal Emergency Management Agency | 332 | |
Response and Recovery Directorate | 333 | |
Preparedness, Training, and Exercises Directorate | 333 | |
U.S. Fire Administration | 334 | |
National Fire Academy and Emergency Management Institute | 334 | |
General Services Administration | 336 | |
Department of Health and Human Services | 336 | |
Metropolitan Medical Response Systems | 337 | |
National Pharmaceutical Stockpile Program | 339 | |
Public Health Surveillance System for WMD | 340 | |
Research and Development | 341 | |
Department of the Interior | 341 | |
Department of Justice and Federal Bureau of Investigation | 341 | |
National Domestic Preparedness Office | 345 | |
Office for State and Local Domestic Preparedness Support | 350 | |
National Domestic Preparedness Consortium | 355 | |
Awareness of National Security Issues and Response Program | 356 | |
National Institute of Justice | 357 | |
National Security Community | 358 | |
Nuclear Regulatory Commission | 358 | |
Department of State | 358 | |
Embassy Protection | 358 | |
Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism | 360 | |
Bureau of Consular Affairs | 362 | |
Bureau of Diplomatic Security | 362 | |
Anti-Terrorism Assistance Program | 362 | |
Export Controls and Homeland Defense | 363 | |
Arms Control and Homeland Defense | 363 | |
Department of Transportation | 364 | |
Department of Treasury | 364 | |
Department of Veterans Affairs | 366 | |
Looking Beyond September 2001 | 367 | |
Chapter 8 | Federal, State, and Local Cooperation | 373 |
Planning for Low- to Mid-Level Terrorism | 374 | |
West Nile Outbreak | 375 | |
The Lessons from "Jointness" | 377 | |
Chapter 9 | How Other Nations Deal with These Threats | 381 |
Leadership and Management | 383 | |
Policies and Strategies | 384 | |
Claimed Reliance on Criminal Prosecution As the Major Response and Deterrent | 385 | |
Oversight, Planning, Programming, and Budgeting | 386 | |
Resource Allocations Are Targeted at Likely Threats, Not Vulnerabilities: Limited Concern with WMD Threats | 387 | |
Learning from Foreign Countries | 388 | |
Chapter 10 | Lessons from Recent Major Commissions on Terrorism | 391 |
The Gilmore, Bremer, and Hart-Rudman Commissions | 391 | |
Areas Where the Commissions Made Similar Recommendations | 394 | |
Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Executive Coordination and Management | 394 | |
Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Congressional Oversight | 397 | |
Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Intelligence Gathering and Sharing | 398 | |
Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Clarify Authority, Command, and Control | 399 | |
Bremer and Hart-Rudman Commissions: Biological Pathogens, International Consensus against Terrorism, and Strengthening of Public Health Systems | 402 | |
Bremer and Hart-Rudman Commissions: Strengthening the International Consensus against Terrorism and the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism | 403 | |
Areas Where the Commissions Made Different Recommendations | 403 | |
Gilmore Commission: Threat Assessments | 404 | |
Gilmore Commission: National Strategy for Domestic Preparedness and CBRN Terrorism Response | 404 | |
Gilmore Commissions: Standardization of Legal Terms | 407 | |
Gilmore Commission: National Standards for Equipment | 407 | |
Bremer Commission: Treatment of Former and Future States of Concern | 409 | |
Bremer Commission: Targeting Terrorist Financial Resources | 410 | |
Bremer Commission: Liability Insurance | 411 | |
Bremer Commission: Realistic Exercises | 411 | |
Chapter 11 | Conclusions and Recommendations | 415 |
Correcting the Strategic Gaps in the U.S. Approach to Homeland Defense | 416 | |
Focusing Less on Who's in Charge and More on What They Should Be in Charge of | 417 | |
Planning for Higher-Probability, Lower-Consequence, and Lower-Probability, Higher-Consequence Events | 418 | |
Planning for Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare | 421 | |
Reacting to the Uncertain Nature of the Threat | 424 | |
The Lack of "Transparency" in Federal Programs | 426 | |
Effective Action Must Be Broad-Based and Suboptimize Efficiently | 428 | |
Focusing on Priorities, Programs, and Trade-offs: Creating Effective Planning, Programming, and Budgeting | 430 | |
Managing Research and Development, Rather Than Treating Asymmetric Attacks, Terrorism, and the CBRN Threat As an Excuse for a "Wish List" and "Slush Fund" | 434 | |
Looking Beyond CBRN Threats: Dealing with All Medical Risks and Costs, the Need for a Comprehensive Public Information Capability, and the Linkage to Improved Strategic Deterrence and Response Capabilities | 435 | |
Homeland Defense and/or Law Enforcement | 438 | |
The Role of the Intelligence Community and the Need for Improved Intelligence | 439 | |
The Challenge of Operations | 442 | |
Rule of Law, Human Rights, Asymmetric Warfare, High Levels of Attack, and "New Paradigms" | 443 | |
The Need for Central Coordination and Management of the Federal Effort | 444 | |
Broader Solutions and New Approaches to National Strategy: Reacting to Asymmetric Warfare | 446 |
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Add Terrorism, Asymmetric Warfare, and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Defending the U.S. Homeland, There is a wide spectrum of potential threats to the U.S. homeland that do not involve overt attacks by states using long-range missiles or conventional military forces. Such threats include covert attacks by state actors, state use of proxies, independen, Terrorism, Asymmetric Warfare, and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Defending the U.S. Homeland to your collection on WonderClub |