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Preface | ||
Acknowledgments | ||
I | Introduction | 3 |
Blueprint | 4 | |
Historical Factors Influencing Exploration Incentives | ||
The Epple Model | ||
An Ad Hoc Supply Model | ||
Forecasting with the Model | ||
II | Historical Factors Influencing Exploration Incentives | 9 |
Institutional Framework | 9 | |
Physical Constraints | ||
The Petroleum Market | ||
Fiscal Policy | ||
Rule of Capture | ||
Prorationing | ||
Import Controls | ||
Tax Policy | ||
Price Control Programs of the 1970s | ||
The Windfall Profit Tax Act of 1980 | ||
Fiscal Summary | ||
The Unit Price Formula | 21 | |
The Unit Price Framework | ||
Variations | ||
Production Constraints | ||
Price Constraints | ||
Taxation | ||
III | The Epple Model | 39 |
Non-Renewability | 39 | |
Renewable Inputs | ||
Non-Renewable Inputs | ||
The Aggregate Oil Bearing Land Supply Function | ||
The Exploration Model | 46 | |
Profit Maximization | ||
Reduced Form Equations | ||
Estimation | 50 | |
Replication of the Original Model | ||
Extension of the Original Model | ||
Data Adjustments | ||
Data Adjustment Results | ||
Data Extension | ||
IV | An Ad Hoc Supply Model | 73 |
Definitions | 74 | |
The Model | 75 | |
Exploratory Wells | ||
New Field Discoveries | ||
Old Field Discoveries | ||
Extensions | ||
Revisions | ||
Production | ||
Econometric Estimation of Model | 89 | |
Exploratory Wells | ||
New Field Discoveries | ||
Old Field Discoveries | ||
Extensions | ||
Revisions | ||
Production | ||
Simulation Properties of the Complete Model | 99 | |
In-Sample Forecast Performance | ||
Ten Year Forecast - 1987 to 1996 | ||
Dynamic Multiplier Properties of the Model | ||
V | A Comparison of Alternate Models | 119 |
Forecast Assumptions | 119 | |
In-Sample Forecast | 122 | |
Ten Year Forecast - 1987 to 1996 | 125 | |
VI | Analysis of the Windfall Profit Tax | 129 |
The Unit Price | 130 | |
Model Simulation - 1981 to 1986 | 130 | |
High Price Profile | ||
Actual Price Profile | ||
VII | Conclusions | 141 |
The Modified Epple Model | 141 | |
The Ad Hoc Model | 143 | |
Policy Analysis | 145 | |
Appendix: Derivation of Reduced Form Equations | 147 | |
Bibliography | 153 | |
Data Bibliography | 157 | |
Index | 159 |
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