Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events Book

Preface xi

I Principles of modeling and Simulation: Advancing Global Studies 1

1 Modeling and Simulation: What, When, and Why 3

Introduction 3

An Overview of Modeling and Simulation 4

A Brief History of Modeling and Simulation 8

Why Use Modeling and Simulation 16

Conclusions 20

Key Terms 21

References 21

Further Reading 22

2 Research Methodologies for Modeling Global Events 23

Introduction 23

Global Events and the Social Sciences 25

Qualitative and Quantitative Research 28

Modeling and Simulation of Global Events 32

Mapping Data: A Suggested Methodology 36

Model Validation 39

Conclusions 40

Key Terms 41

References 41

II Modeling Paradigms 43

3 System Dynamics 45

Introduction 45

Dynamic System Behavior 46

Building Blocks of System Dynamics Models 51

Conclusions 61

Key Terms 61

References 61

4 Agent-Based Modeling and Social Networks 63

Introduction 63

Agent-Based Models: Description and Definition 64

Social Networks 76

Building an Agent-Based Model 77

Conclusions 78

Key Terms 78

References 79

5 Game Theory 81

Introduction 81

Fundamentals of Game Theory 81

Types of Games 86

Conclusions 95

Key Terms 95

References 96

III Modeling Global Events 97

6 Case Study: Colombia-A Country Study of Insurgency 99

Introduction 99

Developing the Research Question and Methodology 101

Background: Qualitative Research 102

Mapping Qualitative to Quantitative 108

System Dynamics 115

Responding to the Research Question 117

Key Terms 120

References 120

Case Study Bibliography 120

7 Case Study: The Polish Solidarity Movement-Laying the Foundation for the Collapse of SovietCommunism 123

Introduction 123

Developing the Research Question and Methodology 125

Background: Qualitative Research 126

Measuring Agents and Environments: Stimuli and Actions 144

Modeling Human Behavior with Agents 147

Responding to the Research Question 150

Conclusions 151

Key Terms 152

References 152

Case Study Bibliography 153

8 Case Study: Vietnam-Johnson's War, 1963-1965 155

Introduction 155

Developing the Research Question and Methodology 157

Background: Qualitative Research 158

Analyzing the Social Network Structures 165

Social Network Aspects of Human Behavior Modeling 169

Agent-Based Model Development 169

Responding to the Research Question 172

Key Terms 173

References 174

Case Study Bibliography 174

9 Case Study: Cuban Missile Crisis-A National Security Emergency 177

Introduction 177

Developing the Research Question and Methodology 179

Background: Qualitative Research 180

Evaluating Behaviors 188

Game Theory 192

Responding to the Research Question 197

Key Terms 199

References 199

Case Study Bibliography 200

Index 203