Reviews for Decision Theory And Decision Analysis

The average rating for Decision Theory And Decision Analysis based on 2 reviews is 3.5 stars.

Review # 1 was written on 2015-01-24 00:00:00 JEFFREY ANDERSON This is advanced math book, so it can easily break brain for unprepared,but that doesn't mean it can't be summarized into more simple philosophical statements. I put this book into my top 1% "game changers" list. 1. You will not get rich without risking bankruptcy. More broadly, you should bet more (or risk more) than you have if you want X. 2. "If reality plays against you, you can give valid sequential probabilities (based on moves, without probability distribution) and you can use them to make optimal decisions." A lot of (novice) Sceptics believe they should know the future when actually they don't. 3. If Sceptic can weakly influence E, he can influence E (on another round). (Redefining second point.) 4. "Changes in market prices over an interval of time of length dt scale as √dt." If Reality doesn't obey this rule, a Sceptic can make a lot of money. 5. You can still make forecasts (based on your previous successful outcome) about reality even if you know nothing about the reality. 6. The expected value of (dS(t))2 just before Market makes the move dS(t) is approximately sigma2S2(t)dt. A bit more precise examples from book: Why stock prices movements look like brownian motion? "Market can avoid allowing Investor to become infinitely rich only by choosing his dS(t) so that S(t) [martingale] has variation exponent exactly equal to 2 [look like random]." Market game, one move: 1. Market announces S(0) > 0. 2. Investor announces sigma(t) [holdings] 3. Market announces dS(t) 4. Market outcome: S(t+dt) = S(t) + dS(t). 5. Investor outcome: I(t+dt) = sigma(t) + S(t)dS(t) And much more... Read the book two times.

Review # 2 was written on 2012-03-23 00:00:00 Yiu Lam This was a difficult book to rate because while it contains some solid, timeless advice, much of the tactics are dated. It's a quick read (or in my case, listen), but 2008 is ages ago in online communications so there are newer books that are probably more worth the time.