Reviews for Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop

The average rating for Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop based on 2 reviews is 3.5 stars.

Review # 1 was written on 2020-09-05 00:00:00 Timothy Wilkins 'At any one moment, there are innumerable possibilities for the state of the global economy.' Economic predictions are difficult: there's plenty of data that seems relevant (such as rates of unemployment and inflation and movements on the various world stock markets). But most of these numbers relate to the past and while they may give some indication of likely trends in the immediate future these metrics won't necessarily tell us much about the long term - either for a particular country or for the global economy. In this book, Daniel Altman, an American economist, analyses a number of different key factors that underpin the world's economies as a way of refocussing economic prediction on the longer term. These factors include climate, culture, demography, geography, natural resources and politics. I was particularly interested in his thoughts about China. Mr Altman predicts that China is not likely to overtake the USA as the world's leading economic power. There are two main reasons given for this: China's culture is still hierarchical and is in many ways inflexible, sometimes corrupt and generally poor in technology infrastructure. As a consequence, China is not an ideal environment in which to support start-up business. More importantly, China is (courtesy of the 'one-child policy') the fastest ageing country in the world. By 2050, China will have hundreds of millions of aged citizens to support, and the growth of average incomes will be constrained as a consequence. China's moment in economic history, according to Mr Altman, 'will be impressive, but brief'. I'm intrigued, but I think that there are other possibilities. For me, the issue is not whether Mr Altman is (or may be) correct, it's trying to identify and understand the various factors that influence growth and prosperity. Mr Altman suggests some risks to global prosperity, including the possibility that increased economic regulation in wealthy nations will lead to off-shore black markets. Presumable, not everyone would agree that off-shore black markets are necessarily a bad thing (at least not in the short-term) but the long term consequences are unlikely to be beneficial. Global warming is identified as another risk on a couple of different levels. Firstly, it will have a direct and significant effect on tropical regions. Secondly, a 'cap and trade' system which provides financial incentives to businesses to reduce polluting emissions may result in rich countries becoming richer, while poor and dirty countries become poorer and dirtier. And the rich world's immigration policies (taking the best and brightest applicants) also have the potential to (further) damage the poorest countries. I'm intrigued by Mr Altman's suggestion that Americans may become the premier sales force in the world. I wonder what they will be selling, and to who? This is an interesting book, and well worth reading. It isn't necessary to agree with Mr Altman's conclusions to derive benefit from the book; it is useful to think about the issues raised. Jennifer Cameron-Smith

Review # 2 was written on 2014-04-15 00:00:00 Kenneth Shadford I found this book thought-provoking. It's a nice piece of thought leadership, although I don't necessarily agree with all of his trends. Here they are in a nutshell: Part 1: Limits 1. China will get richer and then it will get poorer again. 2. The European Union will disintegrate as an economic entity. Part 2: Obstacles 3. The new colonialism will leave the colonizers and the colonized worse off in the long term. 4. Changing immigration policies in rich countries will worsen the brain drain from poor countries even as they get richer. 5. The backlash against capitalism won't last but it won't be replaced by political stability either. Part 3: Opportunities 6. Americans will become the world's sales force. 7. As the global economy integrates, the middle man will win. 8. The collapse of the World Trade Organization will unlock new gains from trade. 9. A new set of lifestyle hubs will replace today's business hubs. Part 4: Risks 10. An enormous financial black market will arise outside of traditional centers. 11. Global warming will make rich countries cleaner and richer and poor countries dirtier and poorer. 12. The structure of political institutions will stop the world from solving its biggest problems.