Modelling Our Future: Population Ageing, Health and Aged Care, Vol. 16 Book

About the Editors     xiii
Notes on Contributors     xv
Foreword     xxvii
Preface     xxix
Introduction and Overview   Anil Gupta   Ann Harding     1
Population Ageing and Health - Empirical Needs for Effective Foresight   Michael C. Wolfson     41
Health Status
Demographic Change, Health and Health-Risk Behaviour across Cohorts in Britain: Implications for Policy Modelling   Maria Evandrou   Jane Falkingham     59
Measures of Dependency among Older People in Community and Residential Settings in Scotland - Their Development and Application in Resource Forecasting   Adam Redpath     81
Health Status, Health Inequalities and the Ability of Older Australians to Stay in the Labour Force   Agnes Walker     105
Pharmacare and Health Expenditure Issues
Evaluating Catastrophic Drug Expenditure Plans   Michael McCracken   Bert Waslander     133
Projections of Commonwealth Health Expenditure in Australia's First Intergenerational Report   Deborah Schofield   George Rothman     149
The Australian Pharmaceuticals Benefit Scheme and Older Australians: Changes in Government Outlays and Consumer Costs from the 2002-03 Federal Budget Measures   Laurie Brown   Annie Abello   BenPhillips   Ann Harding     169
Modelling Medicare and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) Utilisation and Costs   Chris Raymond   Brett Parsons     197
A Microsimulation Model for Pharmacare: Development, Analysis and Policy Applications   Vishnu Kapur   Anil Gupta     213
Financing, Caring and Health Delivery
Microsimulation Model of Medical Insurance Reform for Government Employees and Workers in China   Xiong Linping   Li Yiping   Ma Xiuqiang   Meng Hong   Lin Guohong     237
The View from the Middle: Taking Care of the Young and the Old   Chantal Hicks   Geoff Rowe   Steve Gribble     261
A Simulation Model Concerning Future Needs for Long-term Care of Elderly Persons in Sweden   Marten Lagergren     281
Providing Income Support Services to a Changing Aged Population in Australia: Centrelink's Regional Microsimulation Model   Anthony King     297
Health Human Resources Modelling
Building Policy-Relevant Health Human Resource Models   Anil Gupta   Kisalaya Basu     321
What is Behind HRSA'S Projected U.S. Supply, Demand, and Shortages of Registered Nurses   Marilyn B. Biviano   Steve Tise   Timothy M. Dall     343
Data Challenges
Data Quality and Non-Response Effects when Using Logistical Regression in the Welsh Health Survey   Ruth Studley     377
Confidentiality and Anonymised Survey Records: The UK Experience   Paul Williamson     387
Overview of Existing Microsimulation and Health Human Resources Models
The Search for Ideas among Existing Microsimulation Models   Mike McCracken   Anil Gupta     417
Dynamic Microsimulation Models
MOSART (Dynamic Cross-Sectional Microsimulation Model)   Dennis F. Fredriksen   Nils M. Stolen     433
DYNAMOD   Simon Kelly     439
The SAGE Model: A Dynamic Microsimulation Population Model for Britain   Maria Evandrou   Jane Falkingham   Paul Johnson   Anne Scott   Asghar Zaidi     443
LifePaths Model   Geoff Rowe   Steve Gribble     449
SESIM (Longitudinal Dynamic Microsimulation Model)   Olle Sundberg     453
DYNACAN (Longitudinal Dynamic Microsimulation Model)   Richard J. Morrison     461
DESTINIE ("Modele Demographique Economique et Social de Trajectoires Individuelles Simulees, i.e. Demographic, Economic and Social Model of Simulated Individual Trajectories")   Cedric Afsa   Sophie Buffeteau     467
Static Microsimulation and Macro/Micro Approaches
GLADHISPANIA (A Spanish Tax-Benefits Microsimulation Model)   Xisco Oliver   Amedeo Spadaro     473
STINMOD (Static Incomes Model)   Richard Percival   Annie Abello   Quoc N. Vu     477
EUROMOD - The Tax-Benefit Microsimulation Model for the European Union   Holly Sutherland     483
PSSRU Long-Term Care Finance Model and CARESIM: Two Linked UK Models of Long-Term Care for Older People   Raphael Wittenberg   Ruth Hancock   Adelina Comas-Herrera   Derek King   Juliette Malley   Linda Pickard   Ariadna Juarez-Garcia   Robin Darton     489
Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (SPSD/M)   Chantal Hicks   Brian Murphy     497
The OECD Tax-Benefit Model and Policy Database   Herwig Immervoll     503
Pharmasim Model   Anil Gupta     507
LOTTE - The Norwegian Tax-Benefit Model System   Jorgen Aasness   John K. Dagsvik   Thor O. Thoresen     513
Health Human Resource Models
IPDSM (Integrated Physician Demand and Supply Model)   Kisalaya Basu   Anil Gupta     521
Registered Nurses Supply and Demand Models (NSM & NDM)   Steve Tise   Marilyn B. Biviano      527
MediSim (Static Microsimulation Model of the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme)   Annie Abello   Laurie Brown     533
Spatial Microsimulation
SVERIGE   Einar Holm   Urban Lindgren   Erling Haggstrom Lundevaller   Magnus Stromgren     543
NSW Hospitals Model   Linc Thurecht     551
Customer Service Projection Model (CuSP): A Regional Microsimulation Model of Centrelink Customers   Ben Phillips     557
SpatialMSM - NATSEM's Small Area Household Model for Australia   Shih-Foong Chin   Ann Harding     563
Index     567