The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-Minded America Is Tearing Us Apart Book

Maybe because it's part of my job to understand how people think or what drives them to make certain decisions that The Big Sort has had such a big impact on my thinking.

Its thesis, in brief, is this: Since the 1970s, tens of millions of Americans have packed up and moved, largely for jobs. And when they do, they settle in neighborhoods where pretty nearly everyone is just like them: same outlook, same political leanings, same church-going habits (or not), same education level, same political party, etc. Once settled-in, these modern day tribe members have little need to talk to or associate with people who think differently. Add to that the fact that our niche-marketed economy reinforces this behavior and serves their tribal preferences, these folks have no desire to "think outside the tribe."

In political terms we call this polarization. Author and newspaperman Bill Bishop calls it dangerous to our nation.

Bishop, assisted by statistician/demographer Robert G. Cushing, pulls his conclusions largely from Census data and voting records, and backs it up with science-based psychological and behavioral studies. He makes a compelling case.

In a Malcolm Gladwell sort of way, Bishop tells us that what we thought we knew about political polarization is wrong. It was not caused by repeal of The Fairness Doctrine by the Reagan Administration (giving birth to talk radio and Rush Limbaugh), he says. It was not caused by Karl Rove as he taught the Bush campaign to "play to your base." According to Bishop, it happened one little decision at a time over the years, every time someone relocated. The Limbaughs and Roves of this world, as well as niche marketers, simply exploited the reality they perceived.

One especially telling episode involves Christian celebrity pastor Rick Warren. Bishop describes the lengthy and painstaking demographic research that Warren did before establishing his wildly successful Saddleback church. In short, Warren studied the numbers to find the perfect location and then tailored the show to suit the audience.

Going even further back, Bishop describes how earlier missionaries---ones Warren leaned on---learned that the path to success lay in making the "target audience" feel welcome and comfortable, not in cramming the gospel down their throats. To extend this to contemporary migrations and affiliations: People go where they feel they fit and are welcome.

Edging close to Bowling Alone, Bishop describes the erosion of mainline churches, civic organizations, and Farm Bureau, all associations of heterogeneous groups, as their members vote with their feet and move to homogeneous (yes, polarized) organizations like evangelical Christian churches, or The Sierra Club---a church in its own right, if one listens to the words of its founder John Muir.

A couple other highlights (don't shoot me; I'm just the messenger)
* Since the 1970s, the "undecided middle" has grown smaller and smaller as one analyzes county voting patterns in presidential elections. "Landslide counties"---those where the winner wins a 20 percent or larger margin over the loser---are increasing rapidly in number.
* The single most telling indicator of all other behaviors and attitudes is church-going versus not
* Education is highly indicative and has an inverse relationship with church habits
* Lower-educated people tend to relocate to lower-educated places and earn less

What's the future for a society that is fragmenting like this? Disagreements about everything from social services to health care to banking subsidies to war to state funding of education (and what text books to adopt) permeate our society.

Two fundamental realities are colliding head-on:
(1) as places become more densely populated, they tend to become more socialistic (to provide services and protect people from one another), hence both higher taxes and the need to tax those who disagree
(2) increasing fragmentation of society and greater resentment of being taxed to support things you disagree with

What's the solution?

Bishop gives us a lot to chew on. But not a lot of hope.