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Preface iii
Figures xi
Tables xiii
Summary xv
Acknowledgments xxiii
Abbreviations xxv
Introduction 1
Study Approach 3
What Types of Advanced Military Weapons Could Become Available to Terrorists? 7
Advanced Small Arms 8
Technological Advance: Airburst Assault Weapons with Smart Ammo 10
Technological Advance: Metal Storm's 100 Percent Electronic Firing Mechanism 17
Mortar Systems 20
Technological Advance: Gliding and Rocketing to Longer Range 22
Technological Advance: Nonballistic Flight Through Thrusters and Control Fins 27
Technological Advance: "Fire-and-Forget" IR- and RF-Homing Terminal Guidance 28
Technological Advance: Laser and Fiber-Optic Man-in-the-Loop Terminal Guidance 29
Technological Advance: GPS-Based Computer Aids, Integration, and GPS-Only Guidance 32
Technological Advance: Lightweight Materials and Design Changes to Increase Speed 36
Technological Advance: Greater Penetration, Greater Area Coverage 37
Conclusion 37
Sniper Systems 39
Technological Advance: Ballistics Computers 41
Technological Advance: Remote Aiming Platforms 47
Technological Advance: Enhanced Scopes and Reticules 49
Technological Advance: Long-Range Night Vision for Snipers 50
Technological Advance: Rangefinders 51
Technological Advance: Environmental Sensors 52
Antitank Guided Weapons 54
Man-Portable Antiarmor Weapons 56
Limpet Mines 58
Advanced Land Mines 60
Night Vision 61
Technological Advance: Four Generations of Light Intensification 61
Technological Advance: Seeing Heat 62
What Advanced Conventional Weapons Are Potentially Most Useful and Attractive to Terrorists? 63
Game-Changing Weapons 64
Terrorist Scenarios Involving Advanced Conventional Weapons 66
Mortar Attacks 66
Attack on the Rose Bowl: A Scenario 71
Sniper Attacks 75
Attacks Using Advanced Small Arms 76
Attacks Using Antitank Guided Weapons 77
Attacks Using Limpet Mines 79
Comparing the Most Threatening Advanced Conventional Weapons 79
What Opportunities Exist for Controlling Weapons of Particular Concern? 81
Types of Use Controls 81
Policy and Procedural Controls 84
Technical Controls 87
A Conceptual Design of a Use Control System 91
Combining Policy, Procedures, and Technical Solutions 96
How Might Use Controls Deter Terrorist Organizations? 99
The Benefits, Costs, and Risks of Adopting Advanced Conventional Weapons 100
Benefits Drive the Adoption Process 102
Cost Considerations 103
Risks in Acquiring New Technologies 104
Potential Impacts of Weapon Control Measures 106
Conclusions 109
Observations and Implications 111
Bibliography 117
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