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Acknowledgments | ||
Introduction: The Philosophical Uses of Probability | ||
1 | Reichenbach, Reference Classes, and Single-Case 'Probabilities' | 3 |
2 | Direct Inference and the Problem of Induction | 33 |
3 | Objective Modality and Direct Inference | 61 |
4 | Severe Testing as a Guide for Inductive Learning | 89 |
5 | Bayesian Meets Frequentist: A Marriage Made in California | 119 |
6 | Probability as a Guide in Life | 135 |
7 | A Dilemma for Objective Chance | 153 |
8 | Simpson's Paradox: A Logically Benign, Empirically Treacherous Hydra | 165 |
9 | Conditional Probability Is the Very Guide of Life | 183 |
10 | Causal Generalizations and Good Advice | 205 |
11 | Instrumental Probability | 235 |
12 | What Is Wrong with Bayes Nets? | 253 |
13 | Don't Take Unnecessary Chances! | 277 |
14 | The Reduction of Causation | 295 |
15 | Is It a Crime to Belong to a Reference Class? | 331 |
16 | Explaining Things Probabilistically | 349 |
Index | 358 |
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