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List of maps and tables viii
Foreword Jessica T. Mathews ix
A Note From the Author xi
Acknowledgments xv
Introduction: Life After Death? 1
A Chronicle of the Sinking Empire 1
The Aftermath 6
Why Did It Happen? 9
After the Empire 11
Defining the Post-Imperium 13
The Imperial Rise 18
Twenty Years Later 26
No Single Space Anymore 36
Chapter 1 Imperial Exit and Post-Imperial Condition 39
Public Perceptions 39
Territory and Borders 40
Border Adjustments 42
Territorial Status of the New States 44
Internal Divisions 50
Nation Building 59
Economy 69
Government 72
Military Power 75
International Position 79
Conclusion 81
Chapter 2 Geopolitics and Security 83
Russia's General Approach Toward the New States 84
The Western Flank 88
The Orange Revolution in Ukraine 88
From Frozen Conflicts to the Five-Day War: Georgia 93
The Broader-NATO Enlargement Issue 101
The Future: New Eastern Europe 108
Forgotten Satellites: Central and Southeastern Europe and the Baltics 113
The Southern Front 115
The North Caucasus 116
The South Caucasus and the Neighborhood 121
Central Asia 125
The Eastern Flank 133
The Northern Flank 140
Conclusion 142
Chapter 3 Economics and Energy 144
Russian Economic Interests in the CIS 147
Trade 148
Investment 150
Migration 152
Integration 153
Energy 158
Ukrainian Gas Crises of 2006 and 2009 160
Belarusian Crises of 2007 and 2010 162
Gazprom and the Rest of the CIS 164
Pipeline Geopolitics 164
Opening of the CIS Markets to the World 170
conclusion 172
Chapter 4 Demographics and Immigration 174
Demographic Crisis 176
Returning Russians 180
Immigration and Integration 183
Anti-Immigrant Sentiments 187
"The Chinese Are Coming!" 188
Regional Demographic Vulnerabilities 190
"Compatriots Abroad" 193
Ethnic Russians in Estonia and Latvia 196
Russian "Foreign" Passports 198
Russian Communities in the Far Abroad 199
Conclusion 200
Chapter 5 Culture, Ideology, and Religion 202
Ideas and Ideologies 202
The Failure of Integration 204
Russia's Alleingang 207
Yearning for a Global Role 210
Politics of History 212
The Controversies Over World War II 215
Reappropriating History 220
Religion 223
Language 228
Conclusion 231
Conclusion 233
Notes 243
Index 261
About the Author 281
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 283
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