Modelling Urban Development with Geographical Information Systems and Cellular Automata Book

Preface xi

The Author xiii

Chapter 1 Introduction to Urban Development Modelling 1

1.1 Models and Modelling 2

1.1.1 The Need for Models 2

1.1.2 Characteristics of Models 3

1.1.3 Types of Models 4

1.1.4 Procedures of Model Building 6

1.1.5 The Pitfalls 7

1.2 Theoretical Approaches of Urban Development Modelling 7

1.2.1 Urban Ecological Approach 9

1.2.2 Social Physical Approach 10

1.2.3 Neoclassical Approach 11

1.2.4 Behavioural Approach 13

1.2.5 Systems Approach 14

1.3 Contemporary Practices of Urban Development Modelling 16

1.3.1 Cities as Self-Organising Systems 16

1.3.2 Fuzzy Set and Fuzzy Logic 19

1.3.3 GIS and Urban Modelling 19

1.4 Problems and Prospects 20

1.4.1 Theoretical Problems 20

1.4.2 Technical Problems 22

1.4.3 Future Prospects 22

1.5 Conclusion 23

Chapter 2 Cellular Automata and Its Application in Urban Modelling 25

2.1 Cellular Automata Modelling 25

2.1.1 Cellular Automata Modelling: A Game 25

2.1.2 A Simple Cellular Automata Model 27

2.1.2.1 Five Basic Elements of a Cellular Automaton 28

2.1.2.2 Mathematical Representation of a Cellular Automaton 29

2.1.3 The Complex Features of Cellular Automata 29

2.2 Cellular Automata in Urban Modelling 30

2.2.1 An Urban Cellular Automata 30

2.2.2 Advantages of Cellular Automata for Urban Modelling 33

2.2.2.1 Simplicity in Model Construction 34

2.2.2.2 Modelling Spatial Dynamics to Support "What If" Experiments 34

2.2.2.3 A "Natural Affinity" with Raster GIS 35

2.2.3 Early Applications of Cellular Automata in Urban Modelling 35

2.3 Contemporary Cellular Automata-Based Urban Modelling Practices 38

2.3.1 Space Tessellation: From Regular to IrregularSpatial Units 38

2.3.1.1 Regular Cells of Small or Large Resolution 38

2.3.1.2 Using Irregular Spatial Units 40

2.3.2 From Binary and Multiple to Continuous Cell States 41

2.3.3 Neighbourhood Definitions 41

2.3.3.1 "Action-at-a-Distance" Neighbourhood 41

2.3.3.2 Neighbourhood Size 42

2.3.3.3 Neighbourhood Type 43

2.3.3.4 Irregular Neighbourhood 44

2.3.3.5 Sensitivity Analysis 44

2.3.4 Variation in Transition Rules 45

2.3.4.1 Constrained Cellular Automata 45

2.3.4.2 The SLEUTH Model 46

2.3.4.3 Fuzzy Constrained Cellular Automata Models 47

2.3.4.4 Transition Rules Derived from Other Models 48

2.3.4.5 Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-Based Cellular Automata Models 49

2.3.4.6 Stochastic Cellular Automata Model 50

2.3.5 Modelling Time 51

2.4 Conclusion 51

Chapter 3 Developing a Fuzzy Constrained Cellular Automata Model of Urban Development 53

3.1 Urban Development and Fuzzy Sets 53

3.1.1 Fuzzy Representation of Geographical Boundaries 54

3.1.2 Fuzzy Set Theory 55

3.1.2.1 Definition of Fuzzy Set 55

3.1.2.2 Membership Function 56

3.1.2.3 Fuzzy Operation 58

3.1.3 Urban Development as a Fuzzy Process 59

3.1.3.1 Defining Urban Areas 59

3.1.3.2 Fuzzy Set Approach in Defining Urban Areas 60

3.2 Fuzzy Logic Control in Cellular Automata-Based Urban Modelling 62

3.2.1 Linguistic Variables and Fuzzy Logic 63

3.2.1.1 Linguistic Variables 63

3.2.1.2 Basic Logic Terms and Reasoning 64

3.2.1.3 Fuzzy Logic 66

3.2.2 Fuzzy Logic Control 67

3.2.3 Fuzzy Logic Control in Cellular Automata-Based Urban Modelling 69

3.3 Developing Fuzzy Constrained Cellular Automata for Urban Modelling 70

3.3.1 The Temporal Process of Urban Development 70

3.3.2 The Speed of Urban Development as a Fuzzy Set 73

3.3.3 The Fuzzy Transition Rules and Inferencing 76

3.3.3.1 Primary Transition Rules 76

3.3.3.2 Rule Firing Threshold 77

3.3.3.3 Secondary Transition Rules 79

3.3.3.4 The Defuzzification Process 82

3.3.4 The Defuzzification Process 83

3.4 Conclusion 83

Chapter 4 Sydney: Urban Development and Visualisation 85

4.1 Sydney's Urban Development and Planning 85

4.1.1 Historical Threads of Development 88

4.1.2 Urban Development and Planning 90

4.1.2.1 County of Cumberland Planning Scheme (1948) 90

4.1.2.2 Sydney Region Outline Plan (1968) 93

4.1.2.3 Sydney into its Third Century (1988) 95

4.1.2.4 Cities for the 21st Century (1995) 97

4.1.2.5 City of Cities (2005) 97

4.1.3 Issues Relating to Sydney's Urban Development 100

4.2 Data Collection and Processing 100

4.2.1 Topographic Data 100

4.2.2 Transportation Network 101

4.2.3 Physical Urban Areas 102

4.2.4 Land Excluded from Urban Development 102

4.2.5 Urban Planning Schemes 103

4.3 Defining Sydney's Urban Areas with Fuzzy Set Theory 104

4.3.1 Urban Area Criteria for Statistical Purposes 104

4.3.2 Defining a Fuzzy Boundary of Sydney's Urban Areas 105

4.3.3 Visualising Sydney's Urban Development in Space and Time 107

4.4 Conclusion 110

Chapter 5 Modelling the Urban Development of Sydney: Model Specification, Calibration and Implementation 111

5.1 Model Specification 111

5.1.1 Cell Size and State 111

5.1.2 Neighbourhood Configuration 112

5.1.3 Transition Rules 113

5.1.3.1 Urban Natural Growth Controlled by Primary Transition Rules 113

5.1.3.2 Constrained Development by Secondary Rules 114

5.1.3.3 Flexibility in Rule Implementation 119

5.1.4 The Temporal Dimension 120

5.2 Model Calibration 120

5.2.1 Model Calibration Principles 120

5.2.2 Simulation Accuracy Assessment 122

5.2.2.1 The Error Matrix Approach 122

5.2.2.2 A Modified Error Matrix Approach 124

5.2.2.3 Kappa Coefficient Analysis 126

5.3 Model Implementation in GIS 128

5.3.1 Cellular Automata Modelling and GIS 128

5.3.2 The ArcGIS Approach 129

5.3.3 Graphic User Interface Design 130

5.3.4 Model Calibration 131

5.4 Conclusion 132

Chapter 6 Modelling the Urban Development of Sydney: Results and Discussion 133

6.1 A Summary of Results from the Model 133

6.1.1 The Simulation and Calibration Sequence of the Model 133

6.1.2 Overall Results under All Transition Rules 134

6.2 The Impact of Individual Factors on Sydney's Urban Development 138

6.2.1 Unconstrained Urban Growth 139

6.2.2 Topographically Constrained Development 142

6.2.3 Transportation-Supported Development 142

6.2.4 Urban Planning Policies and Schemes 144

6.2.5 Other Transition Rules 145

6.3 The Impact of Neighbourhood Scale on the Model's Results 146

6.3.1 Results from the Model under Different Neighbourhood Scales 146

6.3.2 Simulation Accuracies of the Model over Time 149

6.3.3 Neighbourhood Scale and Model Calibration 151

6.4 Perspective Views on Sydney's Development to the year 2031 151

6.4.1 Factors Affecting Sydney's Future Development 151

6.4.1.1 Improvement in Transportation Infrastructure 152

6.4.1.2 The Impact of the 2005 Metropolitan Strategic Plan 153

6.4.2 Perspective Views of Urban Development under Different Planning Control Factors 153

6.5 Conclusion 157

Chapter 7 Future Research Directions 159

7.1 Local and Global Transition Rules 160

7.2 Applications of Fuzzy Set and Fuzzy Logic 160

7.3 Urban Consolidation and Anti-urbanisation Processes 161

7.4 The Spatial Area Unit and Its Interaction with the Neighbourhood Scale 162

7.5 Reapplicability of the Model 162

References 163

Index 177