Insurmountable Risks: The Dangers of Using Nuclear Power to Combat Global Climate Change Book

Foreword: The return of the nuclear messiahs iii Acronyms and Abbreviations xi Chapter 1 The World of Tomorrow and Yesterday 1 Section 1.1 From Peaceful Panacea to Environmental Necessity 2 Section 1.2 The Realities of Climate Change 12 Section 1.3 Case Study: the MIT Nuclear Power Report 26 Chapter 2 The White Elephant 29 Section 2.1 The Projected Cost of Nuclear Power 34 Section 2.1.1 Lowering the Capital Cost and Construction Time 37 Section 2.1.2 Reducing the Financial Risk Premium 44 Section 2.1.3 Impact of Potential Cost Improvements 52 Section 2.1.4 Summary of Nuclear Power Economics 53 Section 2.2 The Economics of Nuclear Power as a Carbon Mitigation Strategy 54 Section 2.2.1 "Carbon-Free" Portfolios 54 Section 2.2.2 Direct Taxation of Carbon Emissions 55 Section 2.3 Alternatives for the Near-Term (2006 - 2020) 60 Section 2.3.1 The Economics of Efficiency 61 Section 2.3.2 The Power of Wind 65 Section 2.3.3 Summary of Near-Term Options 71 Section 2.4 Alternatives for the Medium-Term (2020 - 2050) 72 Section 2.4.1 Liquefied Natural Gas and Fuel Switching 73 Section 2.4.2 Increased Use of Wind and Other Renewable Energy Resources 79 Section 2.4.3 Coal Gasification 86 Section 2.4.4 Carbon Capture and Storage 89 Section 2.5 Conclusions 96 Chapter 3 Megawatts and Mushroom Clouds 100 Section 3.1 Uranium Enrichment 105 Section 3.2 Reprocessing and the Plutonium Economy 114 Section 3.3 Tritium Production 124 Section 3.4 Strengthening Non-Proliferation Efforts 126 Section 3.4.1 Enhanced Inspections under the IAEA 130 Section 3.4.2 Restricting Access to Fuel Cycle Technologies 138 Section 3.4.3 Increased Consequences for Suspected Proliferators 148 Section 3.4.4 Disarmament andNonproliferation 155 Section 3.5 Conclusions 160 Chapter 4 A Culture of Safety? 165 Section 4.1 The Record of Safety 168 Section 4.1.1 The Problems of Youth 171 Section 4.1.2 The Problems of Aging 173 Section 4.1.3 The Problems of New Reactors 182 Section 4.2 The Impacts of A Catastrophic Accident 184 Section 4.2.1 Human Consequences of an Accident 188 Section 4.2.2 Economic Consequences of an Accident 192 Section 4.2.3 The Risks from the Nuclear Fuel Cycle 196 Section 4.2.4 Safety and Public Opinion 200 Section 4.3 Probabilistic Risk Assessments 202 Section 4.3.1 The Rasmussen Report and the History of the PRA Methodology 205 Section 4.3.2 Issues of General Completeness 208 Section 4.3.3 "Human Factors" 214 Section 4.3.4 Computers and Digital Control Systems 216 Section 4.3.5 Expert Judgment and Uncertainties of Methodology 221 Section 4.4 Safety of an Expansion of Nuclear Power 224 Section 4.5 Conclusions 229 Chapter 5 The Legacy of Nuclear Waste 233 Section 5.1 Disposal of "Low-Level" Nuclear Waste 235 Section 5.2 Geologic Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Waste 237 Section 5.2.1 General Uncertainties Regarding Geologic Disposal 241 Section 5.2.2 The History of Geologic Disposal in the United States 245 Section 5.2.3 Ready, Fire, Aim... The DOE Strategy at Yucca Mountain 250 Section 5.2.4 Engineered Barriers at Yucca Mountain, the Changing Focus 262 Section 5.2.5 The "Technical" versus "Legal" Limit at Yucca Mountain 268 Section 5.2.6 Additional Concerns Regarding Yucca Mountain 272 Section 5.3 Transportation of Spent Fuel 274 Section 5.4 Alternative Waste Management Strategies 280 Section 5.4.1 Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) 282 Section 5.4.2 Separation, Transmutation, and MOX Fuel 284 Section 5.4.3 Deep Boreholes 287 Section 5.5 Conclusions 290 Chapter 6 Looking Back, Moving Forward 295 Appendix A Uranium Supply and Demand 307 Section A.1 Estimates of Uranium Resources 308 Section A.2 Estimates of Uranium Production Capacity 312 Section A.3 Stretching Uranium Resources 316 Section A.4 Estimates for Cumulative Uranium Demand 318 Section A.5 Impacts of Uranium Supply and Demand on Proliferation 321 References 325 Endnotes 377 Index 417