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Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
SECTION I MEASUREMENT: THE SOLUTION EXISTS 1
CHAPTER 1 Intangibles and the Challenge 3
Yes, I Mean Anything 5
The Proposal 6
CHAPTER 2 An Intuitive Measurement Habit: Eratosthenes, Enrico, and Emily 9
How an Ancient Greek Measured the Size of Earth 10
Estimating: Be Like Fermi 11
Experiments: Not Just for Adults 13
Notes on What to Learn from Eratosthenes, Enrico, and Emily 18
CHAPTER 3 The Illusion of Intangibles: Why Immeasurables Aren't 21
The Concept of Measurement 22
The Object of Measurement 26
The Methods of Measurement 28
Economic Objections to Measurement 35
The Broader Objection to the Usefulness of "Statistics" 37
Ethical Objections to Measurement 39
Toward a Universal Approach to Measurement 41
SECTION II BEFORE YOU MEASURE 45
CHAPTER 4 Clarifying the Measurement Problem 47
Getting the Language Right: What "Uncertainty" and "Risk" Really Mean 49
Examples of Clarification: Lessons for Business from, of All Places, Government 51
CHAPTER 5 Calibrated Estimates: How Much Do You Know Now? 57
Calibration Exercise 59
Further Improvements on Calibration 64
Conceptual Obstacles to Calibration 65
The Effects of Calibration 71
CHAPTER 6 Measuring Risk through Modeling 79
How Not to Measure Risk 79
Real Risk Analysis: The Monte Carlo 81
An Example of the Monte Carlo Method and Risk 82
Tools and Other Resources for Monte Carlo Simulations 91
The Risk Paradox and the Need for Better Risk Analysis 93
CHAPTER 7 Measuring the Value of Information 99
The Chance of Being Wrong and the Cost of Being Wrong: Expected Opportunity Loss 100
The Value of Information for Ranges 103
The Imperfect World: The Value of Partial Uncertainty Reduction 107
The Epiphany Equation: How the Value of Information Changes Everything 110
Summarizing Uncertainty, Risk, and Information Value: The First Measurements 114
SECTION III MEASUREMENT METHODS 117
CHAPTER 8 The Transition: From What to Measure to How to Measure 119
Tools of Observation: Introduction to the Instrument of Measurement 120
Decomposition 124
Secondary Research: Assuming You Weren't the First to Measure It 127
The Basic Methods of Observation: If One Doesn't Work, Try the Next 128
Measure Just Enough 131
Consider the Error 132
Choose and Design the Instrument 136
CHAPTER 9 Sampling Reality: How Observing Some Things Tells Us about All Things 139
Building an Intuition for Random Sampling: The Jelly Bean Example 141
A Little about Little Samples: A Beer Brewer's Approach 142
Statistical Significance: A Matter of Degree 145
When Outliers Matter Most 148
The Easiest Sample Statistics Ever 150
A Biased Sample of Sampling Methods 153
Measure to the Threshold 162
Experiment 165
Seeing Relationships in the Data: An Introduction to Regression Modeling 169
One Thing We Haven't Discussed—and Why 174
CHAPTER 10 Bayes: Adding to What You Know Now 177
Simple Bayesian Statistics 178
Using Your Natural Bayesian Instinct 181
Heterogeneous Benchmarking: A "Brand Damage" Application 187
Bayesian Inversion for Ranges: An Overview 190
Bayesian Inversion for Ranges: The Details 193
The Lessons of Bayes 196
SECTION IV BEYOND THE BASICS 201
CHAPTER 11 Preference and Attitudes: The Softer Side of Measurement 203
Observing Opinions, Values, and the Pursuit of Happiness 203
A Willingness to Pay: Measuring Value via Trade-offs 207
Putting It All on the Line: Quantifying Risk Tolerance 211
Quantifying Subjective Trade-offs: Dealing with Multiple Conflicting Preferences 214
Keeping the Big Picture in Mind: Profit Maximization versus Purely Subjective Trade-offs 218
CHAPTER 12 The Ultimate Measurement Instrument: Human Judges 221
Homo absurdus: The Weird Reasons behind Our Decisions 222
Getting Organized: A Performance Evaluation Example 227
Surprisingly Simple Linear Models 228
How to Standardize Any Evaluation: Rasch Models 230
Removing Human Inconsistency: The Lens Model 234
Panacea or Placebo?: Questionable Methods of Measurement 238
Comparing the Methods 246
CHAPTER 13 New Measurement Instruments for Management 251
The Twenty-First-Century Tracker: Keeping Tabs with Technology 251
Measuring the World: The Internet as an Instrument 254
Prediction Markets: A Dynamic Aggregation of Opinions 257
CHAPTER 14 A Universal Measurement Method: Applied Information Economics 265
Bringing the Pieces Together 266
Case: The Value of the System that Monitors Your Drinking Water 270
Case: Forecasting Fuel for the Marine Corps 275
Ideas for Getting Started: A Few Final Examples 281
Summarizing the Philosophy 287
APPENDIX Calibration Tests (and Their Answers) 289
Index 299
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Add How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business, Praise for the Second Edition of How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business How to Measure Anything was already my favorite book (just ahead of Hubbard's second book, The Failure of Risk Management) and on, How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business to the inventory that you are selling on WonderClubX
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Add How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business, Praise for the Second Edition of How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business How to Measure Anything was already my favorite book (just ahead of Hubbard's second book, The Failure of Risk Management) and on, How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business to your collection on WonderClub |