Global Population Aging and Its Economic Consequences Book

Illustrations

Acknowledgments

Global Population Aging and Its Economic Consequences 1

The Demography of Population Aging 2

First Principles of Population Aging 2

The Demographic Transition in Slow Motion 5

The Demographic Transition in Real Time 7

Population Aging and Dependency 10

International Variation in Old-Age Dependency Ratios 12

Consumption and Production over the Lifecycle 12

More Refined Measures of Production and Consumption 13

Estimated Consumption and Earning for Third-World Populations 13

The United States: Consumption Skewed to the Elderly 15

The Changing Balance of Earners and Consumers 16

The Indian Support Ratio from 1950 to 2100 17

The U.S. Support Ratio over the Twenty-First Century 19

Population Aging and the Accumulation of Wealth 23

The Real World: Institutions and Intergenerational Transfers 28

Capital Saturation, Transfer Policy, National Debt, and Trade 32

Capital Intensification in Industrial Nations 32

How Much Capital Do We Want? 33

Conclusions 35

Notes 39

References 41

About the Author 45