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About the Author xiii
About the Technical Reviewers xv
Introduction xvii
Introduction to Performance Forecasting 1
Risk: A Four-Letter Word 2
Service-Level Management 3
Modeling: Making the Complex Simple 5
Model Types 6
Mathematical Models 6
Benchmark Models 7
Simulation Models 7
Differences Between Benchmarks and Simulations 8
Challenges in Forecasting Oracle Performance 9
Essential Performance Forecasting 13
The Computing System Is Alive 13
Transactions Are Units of Work 15
The Arrival Rate 15
The Transaction Processor 16
The Queue 17
Transaction Flow 18
The Response Time Curve 19
CPU and IO Subsystem Modeling 20
Method Is a Must 22
Data Collection 23
Essential Mathematics 25
The Formulas 25
The Application 27
What Management Needs to Know 29
Risk Mitigation Strategies 31
Tuning the Application and Oracle 31
Buying More CPU Capacity 32
Balancing Existing Workload 34
Summary 37
Increasing Forecast Precision 39
Forecasting Gotchas! 39
Model Selection 40
Questions to Ask 40
Fundamental Forecasting Models 42
Baseline Selection 46
Response Time Mathematics 47
Erlang C Forecasting Formulas 48
Contrasting Forecasting Formulas 57
Average Calculation 59
The Right Distribution Pattern 60
How to Average Diverse Values 61
Case Study: Highlight Company 65
Determine the Study Question 66
Gather and Characterize Workload 66
Select the Forecast Model 66
Forecast and Validate 67
What We Tell Management 72
Summary 73
Basic Forecasting Statistics 75
What Is Statistics? 75
Sample vs. Population 77
Describing Samples 77
Numerically Describing Samples 77
Visually Describing Data Samples 79
Fully Describing Sample Data 82
Making Inferences 89
Precision That Lies 91
Summary 93
Practical Queuing Theory 95
Queuing System Notation 95
Little's Law 99
Kendall's Notation 103
The Queuing Theory Workbook 106
Queuing Configurations and Response Time Curve Shifts 114
Observing the Effects of Different Queuing Configurations 114
Moving the Response Time Curve Around 119
Challenges in Queuing Theory Application 124
Summary 136
Methodically Forecasting Performance 139
The Need for a Method 139
The OraPub Forecasting Method 141
Determine the Study Question 141
Gather the Workload Data 144
Characterize the Workload 145
Develop and Use the Appropriate Model 145
Validate the Forecast 146
Forecast 151
Summary 151
Characterizing the Workload 153
The Challenge 153
Gathering the Workload 154
Gathering Operating System Data 155
Gathering Oracle Data 158
Defining Workload Components 161
Simple Workload Model 162
Single-Category Workload Model 163
Multiple-Category Workload Model 168
Selecting the Peak 181
Selecting a Single Sample 183
Summarizing Workload Samples 184
Summary 184
Ratio Modeling 185
What Is Ratio Modeling? 185
The Ratio Modeling Formula 186
Gathering and Characterizing the Workload 187
Deriving the Ratios 189
Deriving the Batch-to-CPU Ratio 189
Deriving the OLTP-to-CPU Ratio 192
Forecasting Using Ratio Modeling 194
Summary 198
Linear Regression Modeling 199
Avoiding Nonlinear Areas 199
Finding the Relationships 200
Determining a Linear Relationship 203
View the Raw Data 203
View the Raw Data Graph 205
View the Residual Data 206
View the Residual Data Graph 208
View the Regression Formula 211
View the Correlation Strength 212
If Everything Is OK, Forecast 213
Dealing with Outliers 214
Identifying Outliers 216
Determining When to Stop 219
Regression Analysis Case Studies 221
Summary 228
Scalability 229
The Relationship Between Physical CPUs and Effective CPUs 229
How Scalability Is Used in Forecasting 230
What's Involved in Scalability? 233
Speedup and Scaleup 235
Which Forecast Models Are Affected by Scalability? 236
Scalability Models 237
Amdahl Scaling 237
Geometric Scaling 240
Quadratic Scaling 240
Super-Serial Scaling 242
Methods to Determine Scalability 244
Physical-to-Effective CPU Data 244
Benchmark: Physical CPUs-to-Throughput Data 248
Real System: Load and Throughput Data 251
Summary 253
Index 255
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Add Forecasting Oracle Performance, Now available in paperback— What makes seasoned IT professionals run for cover? Answer: Forecasting Oracle Performance! Craig Shallahamer is an Oracle performance expert with over 18 years of experience. His book is the first to focus not, Forecasting Oracle Performance to the inventory that you are selling on WonderClubX
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Add Forecasting Oracle Performance, Now available in paperback— What makes seasoned IT professionals run for cover? Answer: Forecasting Oracle Performance! Craig Shallahamer is an Oracle performance expert with over 18 years of experience. His book is the first to focus not, Forecasting Oracle Performance to your collection on WonderClub |