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Acknowledgements xiii
1 Introduction to consumer credit and credit scoring 1
1.1 Introduction: importance and impact of consumer credit 1
1.2 Historical background of default-based credit scoring 5
1.3 Objectives of lenders 9
1.4 Tools for modelling lending decisions: influence diagrams, decision trees, and strategy trees 13
1.5 Probabilities, odds, information, and scores 25
1.6 Modifying scores: scaling, multiple levels, and time dependency 41
1.7 Lending returns and costs 53
1.8 Fundamentals of scorecard building 62
1.9 Using logistic regression to build scorecards 79
1.10 Other scorecard-building approaches 84
2 Measurement of scoring systems 100
2.1 Measuring scorecard quality 100
2.2 Discrimination measures: divergence, Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, and D-concordance statistic 104
2.3 ROC curve and Gini coefficient 115
2.4 Scorecard segmentation and measuring its impact on discrimination 128
2.5 Calibration measures of scorecard probability predictions 137
2.6 Measures of the correctness of categorical prediction 146
3 Risk-based pricing 152
3.1 Variable pricing in consumer lending 152
3.2 Risk-free response rate function and optimal pricing 152
3.3 Risk response relationship, adverse selection, and affordability 169
3.4 Risk-based response function and risk-based pricing 175
3.5 Acceptance scoring for multi-feature offers 186
3.6 A borrower-lender game model for pricing 196
4 Profit scoring and dynamic models 204
4.1 Behavioural scoring and dynamic account management 204
4.2 Profit scoring, risk/reward matrices to customer behaviour dynamics 212
4.3 Markov chain models of account behaviour 220
4.4 Markovdecision process models of profitability 237
4.5 Survival analysis-based scoring systems and default estimation 251
4.6 Survival analysis-based profit models, including attrition and prepayment 269
5 Portfolio credit risk and the Basel Accord 278
5.1 Portfolio credit risk 278
5.2 Economic and regulatory capital 286
5.3 Summary of Basel Capital Accords 289
5.4 Basel II regulations and their impact on credit scoring 303
5.5 Regulatory capital and optimal cut-off policies 314
5.6 Modelling credit risk for portfolios of consumer and corporate loans 330
5.7 Basel stress testing of consumer portfolios: static and dynamic approaches 347
Appendices 360
A Scores and runbook example 360
B Southampton bank application data 362
References 365
Index 371
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Add Consumer Credit Models: Pricing, Profit and Portfolios, The use of credit scoring--the quantitative and statistical techniques to assess the credit risks involved in lending to consumers--has been one of the most successful if unsung applications of mathematics in business for the last fifty years. Now wi, Consumer Credit Models: Pricing, Profit and Portfolios to the inventory that you are selling on WonderClubX
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Add Consumer Credit Models: Pricing, Profit and Portfolios, The use of credit scoring--the quantitative and statistical techniques to assess the credit risks involved in lending to consumers--has been one of the most successful if unsung applications of mathematics in business for the last fifty years. Now wi, Consumer Credit Models: Pricing, Profit and Portfolios to your collection on WonderClub |