Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis (MPB-35) Book

	Preface
	Mathematical Symbols
Pt. I	Theory
1	Introduction	3
1.1	At the Sources	3
1.2	General Philosophy of the Approach	6
2	Population Dynamics from First Principles	17
2.1	Introduction	17
2.2	Exponential Growth	19
2.3	Self-Limitation	26
2.4	Consumer-Resource Oscillations	30
2.5	Process Order	36
2.6	Synthesis	44
3	Single-Species Populations	47
3.1	Models without Population Structure	47
3.2	Exogenous Drivers	58
3.3	Age- and Stage-Structured Models	64
3.4	Second-Order Models	70
3.5	Synthesis	76
4	Trophic Interactions	78
4.1	Responses to Predators to Fluctuations in Prey Density	79
4.2	Continuous-Time Models	93
4.3	Discrete-Time Models: Parasitoids	108
4.4	Grazing Systems	112
4.5	Pathogens and Parasites	127
4.6	Tritrophic Models	133
4.7	Synthesis	136
5	Connecting Mathematical Theory to Empirical Dynamics	137
5.1	Introduction	137
5.2	Qualitative Types of Deterministic Dynamics	139
5.3	Population Dynamics in the Presence of Noise	146
5.4	Population Regulation	154
Pt. II	Data
6	Empirical Approaches: An Overview	163
6.1	Introduction	163
6.2	Analysis of Population Fluctuations	164
6.3	Experimental Approaches	168
7	Phenomenological Time-Series Analysis	173
7.1	Basics	173
7.2	Fitting Models to Data	183
7.3	Synthesis	195
8	Fitting Mechanistic Models	197
8.1	Model Selection	198
8.2	Analysis of Ancillary Data	200
8.3	One-Step-Ahead Prediction	201
8.4	Trajectory Matching	203
8.5	Fitting by Nonlinear Forecasting	205
Pt. III	Case Studies
9	Larch Budmoth	213
9.1	Introduction	213
9.2	Analysis of Time-Series Data	217
9.3	Hypotheses and Models	220
9.4	Synthesis	237
10	Southern Pine Beetle	239
10.1	Introduction	239
10.2	Analysis of Time-Series Data	240
10.3	Hypotheses and Models	243
10.4	An Experimental Test of the Predation Hypothesis	259
10.5	Synthesis	271
11	Red Grouse	272
11.1	Numerical Patterns	273
11.2	Hypotheses and Models	281
11.3	Experiments	289
11.4	Synthesis	294
12	Voles and Other Rodents	296
12.1	Introduction	296
12.2	Analysis of Time-Series Data	297
12.3	Hypotheses and Models	310
12.4	Fitting the Predation Model by NLF	321
12.5	Lemmings	325
12.6	Synthesis	335
13	Snowshoe Hare	344
13.1	Introduction	344
13.2	Numerical Patterns	345
13.3	Models	349
13.4	Experiments	356
13.5	Synthesis	362
14	Ungulates	365
14.1	Introduction	365
14.2	Interaction with Food	368
14.3	Interaction with Predators	371
14.4	Numerical Dynamics	376
14.5	Synthesis	381
15	General Conclusions	383
15.1	What Mechanisms Drive Oscillations in Nature?	383
15.2	Structure of Density Dependence	386
15.3	What about Chaos?	390
15.4	Population Ecology: A Mature Science	392
	Glossary	397
	References	405
	Index	437