Arab Political Demography: Population Growth, Labor Migration and Natalist Policies, Vol. 1 Book

List of Tables, Figures and Charts vii

Preface and Acknowledgments xi

List of Abbreviations xiii

Introduction: The Methodological Framework of Arab Political Demography 1

1 The Emergence of "Poor" and "Rich" Arab States 1

2 The Concept of Political Demography 5

1 Sources for Demographic Research of the Arab States 10

1 An Overview of Demographic Records in the Arab Countries 10

2 Case Studies in the History of Demographic Records 14

3 The "Flickering" Nature of the Saudi Arabian Demographic Data 23

4 The "Missing" Ethno-Religious Composition of the Arab Countries 31

5 The Lacuna of Accurate Employment Data 36

6 The Research Implications of the "Informal (Hidden) Economy" 40

7 Summary and Conclusions 44

2 Beyond Expectations: Arab Population Growth in Retrospect 47

1 Introduction: Worldwide Population Growth in Retrospect 47

2 The Demographic Transition Theory and the Arab Countries 49

3 An Historical Examination of Population Growth in the Arab States 59

4 The Revolution of Mortality Rates in the Arab Countries 81

5 Summary and Conclusions 86

3 "Jobs for the Boys (and Girls)": The Emergence of the Employment Dilemma 90

1 The Consequences of the Young Age Structure 91

2 Arab Employment Developments in Retrospect 110

3 The Increase in Disguised Unemployment and Underemployment 121

4 Unemployment as a Differentiating Factor between the Arab Countries and the Developed Countries 123

5 Summary and Conclusions 126

4 The "New Arab Demographic Order": The Intra-Arab Labor Migration 128

1 The Theoretical Framework of International Labor Migration 128

2 The GCC Development Strategy following the "Oil Boom" 130

3 TheSubsequent Rapid Growth of Foreign Labor 134

4 The Unique Gulf Labor Migration Pattern 142

5 The GCC Labor and Immigration Policies: "From Encouragement through Limitation to Surrender" 147

6 Evaluating the GCC Immigration and Employment Policies 163

7 The Labor Emigration Policy of the Arab Labor-Exporting Countries 166

8 Was it Worth It? The Cost/Benefit Balance of the Intra-Arab Labor Migration for the Labor-Exporting Countries 168

9 Summary and Conclusions 171

5 Between Pro-Natalism and Anti-Natalism in the Arab Countries 173

1 The Attitude toward Population Growth in Historical Perspective 173

2 The Various "Population Policy" Definitions 176

3 An Historical Examination of the Western Natalist Perception until the Mid-Twentieth Century 178

4 An Historical Examination of the Natalist Policies of the Arab Countries 179

5 Evaluation of the Family Planning Programs in the Arab Countries 212

6 "Direct" or "Indirect"? The Contribution of Family Planning Programs to Fertility Decline 215

7 Why Tunisia and Lebanon? 219

8 Summary and Conclusions 220

6 Summary and Conclusions: The Emergence of the "Arab Demographic Catch 22" 222

Appendix I Key Economic Indicators for some Arab Countries, 2005 233

Notes 234

Bibliography 284

Index 317