Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Cental Asia Book

About the Editors and Authors xi

Acknowledgments xv

ECA Countries and Subregions xvii

Executive Summary xix

Abbreviations xxi

Overview 1

Climate Change-A Major Threat to Eastern Europe and Central Asia 3

Vulnerability Will Be Dominated by Socioeconomic Factors and Legacy Issues 6

Even Countries and Sectors that Could Benefit from Climate Change Are Poorly Positioned To Do So 8

The Next Decade Offers a Window of Opportunity for ECA Countries 9

Notes 11

1 A Framework for Developing Adaptation Plans 13

Vulnerability as a Function of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity 15

From Vulnerability to Action: Tackling the Challenge of Adaptation 22

Effective Adaptation Requires the Right Decision-Making Tools 28

Notes 34

2 How ECA's Climate Has Changed and Is Likely to Change Further 37

Eastern Europe and Central Asia's Climate Is Already Changing 38

More Change Is Certain-the Question Is Where and How 39

Climate Projections: How Is Eastern Europe and Central Asia Likely To Be Affected? 40

Notes 51

3 Human Health: The Most Basic Vulnerability 53

Warmer and More Extreme Weather Brings New Threats and Exacerbates Others 54

Vulnerability from Climate-Driven Migration: The Health Perspective 60

Assessing Vulnerability and Prioritizing Protections 64

4 Climate Change Will Make Water and Land Management More Complex 69

More Difficult Water Resource Management-Too Much or Too Little of a Good Thing? 70

More Stress on Already Stressed Coastal Areas 74

Declining Arctic Ice, Tundra, and Permafrost 80

Threats to Biodiversity Are Significant 80

Notes 88

5 The Unbuilt Environment: Agriculture and Forestry 91

Climate Impacts Will Exacerbate ECA's Persistent Problem of Rural Poverty 93

Models Predict There Will Be Winners and Losers in ECA 95

The State and Sensitivities of ECA's Agriculture Today 108

Potential Climate Change Winners Face Their Own Challenges 113

Adaptation in the Productive Environment 115

Notes 116

6 The Built Environment: Cities, Water Systems, Energy, and Transport 121

Urban Challenges: Making Cities Livable and Viable in a Warmer Century 123

Water: Supplying All Human Activity Essential for Facing Multiple Pressures 127

Energy-Sector Vulnerabilities: New Pressure to Overcome a Legacy of Inefficiency 130

Transport: Taking On Another Increment of Challenge 135

Notes 137

7 Protection and Preparation: Disaster Risk Management and Weather Forecasting 139

Softening the Blow When Disaster Strikes 140

Understanding When Extreme Weather Is Coming 146

Conclusion 150

Notes 151

References 153

Index 167

Boxes

1.1 Standard Approaches for Understanding Risk and Developing an Adaptation Strategy 25

1.2 Lessons on the Engagement of Stakeholders in Adaptation Plans-Urban Experiences 27

1.3 Is Adaptation any Different from Development? 29

1.4 The World Bank's Climate Portal 33

1.5 Tools to Help You: Tools Portfolio of the UK Climate Impact Program 34

2.1 General Circulation Models and Climate Downscaling 41

2.2 The Skill of Models in Simulating Present Climate in Eastern Europe and Central Asia 43

3.1 With Every Flood, a Risk of Disease 57

3.2 Adaptation Strategies for Floods and Heat Waves 66

4.1 Placing More Emphasis on River Basin Management 75

4.2 Bioclimatic Models 84

5.1 Estimated Agronomic Impacts of Climate Change in ECA to 2050: A Summary 97

5.2 Economic Agricultural Impact Models and Their Limitations 106

6.1 Roma, Already Marginalized, Are Particularly Vulnerable 123

6.2 Green Roofs to Manage Stormwater and Heat Waves 126

6.3 ECA's Energy Sector in Need of Investments and Improved Management 131

7.1 Poland's Flood Disaster Leads to Stepped-Up Preparation 149