Seeing the Invisible: National Security Intelligence in an Uncertain Age Book

Foreword     vii
Preface     ix
The Plan of the Book     1
Introduction     1
The Outline of the Book     3
Understanding National Security     7
The Changing Role of the State     8
The State and Globalization     10
Other Globalization Actors     12
Global and Local Identities     13
The Complex Security Environment     14
The Asymmetric Threats     15
Transnational Organized Crime as a National Security Threat     18
Current State Responses     20
The Future Role of National Security     22
The Complex and Uncertain International Security Environment     23
Threats, Risks and Vulnerability     24
Types of Threat Actors     30
The Fragility of the Developed States     34
Converging Technology Trends and the Threat Environment     36
Complexity and Uncertainty in the International System     41
Predicting the Future     43
Strategic Intelligence Assessment and Surprise Attacks     45
Underlying Themes     46
Definitions     47
Data, Information, Knowledge and Assessment     50
The Intelligence Cycle: Direction, Collection, Analysis, and Dissemination     52
Strategic Surprise and Predictability     53
The Need for Strategic intelligence Theory     58
Ancient and Modern Assessments: Common Problems     63
The Ancients and Strategic Surprise     64
Knowledge and Assessment Failures in Ancient Times     68
Modern Literature and the Study of Intelligence     69
Categories     69
The State of Strategic Intelligence Assessment     85
Reinforcing Intelligence Failures     89
The Academic Response     91
Strategic Assessment and Terrorism     93
Reinforcing Failure     96
Technology and Intelligence     97
The Outlook     98
A Lack of Balance in Resources     98
The Militarization of Intelligence     103
Secrecy Undermines the Analytical Process     104
A Lack of Training and Upgrading     105
Outlook and Conclusions     107
Structure and Organization: The Weakness of Centralized Intelligence     111
Faint Signals     117
The Case of the Flying Telephone Pole     118
The Case of the Missed Declaration of War      122
The Case of the Missed Diplomatic Signals     125
Conclusions     127
More Faint Signals Being Missed?     131
The Case of Animal Disease and Pandemics     131
The Case of Technology Trends and Home Made Weapons     134
The Case of Bangladesh     137
The Case of the United States and Information Sharing     140
The Case of Nano Technologies     142
National Security Intelligence and the Front Line Requirements     147
Open Source Intelligence     157
OSINT and National Security     158
What Constitutes Open Source Intelligence?     161
Secrecy is the Enemy of Knowledge     162
The Private Sector has More Information and Expertise     165
Contingencies and Surprises     166
OSINT and Information Flexibility     168
Limitations of Classified Intelligence     168
OSINT and Reliability     170
High Resolution Space-Based Open Source Imagery     173
Global Tracking of Issues     175
Outlook and Conclusions     177
Anticipating Future Threats: The Problem Areas     179
Predicting the Future     180
The Changing Role of the State and National Security      182
The Complex and Uncertain Environment     183
Technology and Future Intelligence     184
Traditional Methods of Strategic Intelligence Warning     185
Artificial Intelligence?     185
Anticipating Future Threats: The Areas of Strength     189
Resiliency and Efficiency     190
Diverse Views or Consensus?     192
Asymmetric Threats and Knowledge     192
Knowledge Workers and Small Groups     194
Order and Choice     195
Outlook and Conclusions     197
The Singapore Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Process     199
Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning     201
Interview with Ambassador Lam Chuan Leong     202
Interview with Civil Service Head Mr. Peter Ho     207
Interview with Mr. Dave Snowden of Cognitive Edge     212
Rethinking National Security Intelligence     227
An Intelligent Future for Strategic Intelligence     228
The Changing Role of the State     228
National Security Must be a Public Issue     229
The Future Cannot be Predicted, but it Can be Anticipated     229
Faint Signal Detection     230
Emerging Threats are Asymmetric in Nature      231
Diversity is the Key     231
Humans are not Rational Decision Makers     231
Government is not a Business     232
Open Source Intelligence is Critical     233
Education is Required     233
Short Term Future - A Bit Bleak in Some States     233
Methodology is not Critical     234
Digital and Analogue     235
The Future Could be Bright     235
The Future of Intelligence?     236
A National Security and Education: Thinking Across the Boundaries of Time and Specialization     237
Bibliography     239
Index     243