Risk Methodologies for Technological Legacies Book

	List of Contributors	ixx
	Preface	xxiii
	Acknowledgments	xxvii
1.	Introduction	1
Part I	Unifying Risk Management and Risk Analysis for Decision Makers	5
2.	Complementary Risk Management: A Unified View for Decision Makers	7
2.1	A Short History of Risk Assessment Traditions	7
2.2	Defining Risk Analysis	9
2.3	Risk Management	15
2.4	Risk Perception	22
2.5	Complementary Risk Management	27
2.6	References	27
Part II	Legacies	29
3.	Radiation Legacy of the Soviet Nuclear Complex	31
3.1	Background	32
3.2	Extraction, Enrichment, and Processing of Uranium Ores	34
3.3	Production of Uranium Hexafluoride and Isotopic Enrichment of Uranium	35
3.4	Manufacture of Nuclear Fuel	38
3.5	Production of Plutonium and Radiochemical Processing of Spent Nuclear Fuel	40
3.6	Production of Nuclear Weapons	48
3.7	Ship Nuclear Propulsion Plants and Their Infrastructure	48
3.8	Nuclear Explosions	52
3.9	Conclusion	57
3.10	References	57
4.	Status and Challenges of Managing Risks in the U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Management Program	59
4.1	Cold War Legacy Challenges	61
4.2	New Approach to Risk Management--Risk/Hazard Profiles	65
4.3	Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Methodology	70
4.4	Conclusions	73
4.5	References	74
5.	Perception of Risk, Health, and Inequality	75
5.1	General Setting of the Study	76
5.2	Risk Perception	77
5.3	Health and Environmental Concerns	78
5.4	Risk Perception and Socio-Economic Factors	80
5.5	Discussion and Conclusions	83
5.6	References	85
6.	Risk-Based Ranking Experiences for Cold War Legacy Facilities in the United States	87
6.1	Background	88
6.2	Risk-Based Ranking Approaches	88
6.3	Quantitative Health and Environmental Risk Estimation	93
6.4	Facility-Wide Application Experience	94
6.5	Lessons Learned: Factors to be Considered and Managed	100
6.6	Conclusion	103
6.7	References	103
7.	Cleanup of Radioactive Floating Refuse at Vromos Bay	107
7.1	Conditions Before Restoration	108
7.2	Initial Restoration, 1991-1994	112
7.3	PHARE Project, 1995	113
7.4	Project Results	117
7.5	References	120
8.	Integrated Accident Risk Analysis and Applications for the Disposal of Chemical Agents and Munitions	123
8.1	Managing Chemical Demilitarisation	124
8.2	Quantitative Risk Assessment Methodology Overview	130
8.3	Presentation of Risk Results	142
8.4	Application to Cold War Legacy Facilities	147
8.5	References	147
9.	Environmental Radiation Does Reconstruction for U.S. and Russian Weapons Production Facilities: Hanford and Mayak	149
9.1	U.S. and Russian Production Facilities	150
9.2	Approaches to Dose Reconstruction: The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project	155
9.3	Approaches to Dose Reconstruction: The Techa River Dosimetry System 2000	163
9.4	Representative Doses to Members of the Public	172
9.5	Conclusions	178
9.6	References	179
10.	Quantitative Risk Assessment Methods of Accounting for Probabilistic and Deterministic Data Applied to Complex Systems	183
10.1	Background	184
10.2	Assessment Methodology	184
10.3	Conclusion	198
Part III	Analyses and Programs Applicable to Legacies	201
11.	Environmental Risk Assessment of Installations and Sites Inherited from the Cold War Period in Bulgaria	203
11.1	Types of Installations and Sites	204
11.2	Environmental Issues and Organizations to Deal With Them	204
11.3	Approaches to Risk Assessment	205
11.4	Commonalities of the Two Approaches	208
11.5	Conclusion	210
12.	Radiation Factors Risk Assessment Within the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant Exclusion Zone	211
12.1	Background	211
12.2	The Chornobyl Catastrophe	214
12.3	Transport of Contaminants Through the Environment	215
12.4	Modelling Strontium-90 Transport Through Exclusion Zone Water Systems	221
12.5	Conclusions	223
12.6	References	229
13.	Psychological Aspects of Risk Assessment and Management	231
13.1	Differences in Risk Perception Between Experts and Lay People	232
13.2	External Factors and Motivation in Risk Perception Among the Population	235
13.3	Developing an Information Strategy Based on Psychological Aspects of Risk Perception	237
13.4	Conclusions	242
13.5	References	242
14.	Utilizing a Multimedia Approach for Risk Analysis of Environmental Systems	245
14.1	Initial Development of Risk Modelling Capabilities	246
14.2	Need for More Complex Systems	246
14.3	An Integrated Risk-Assessment Software System	247
14.4	Using an Integrated System for a Complex Analysis	249
14.5	Conclusions	254
14.6	References	254
15.	Using Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment to Optimise Safety in Chemical Installations	255
15.1	Master Logic Diagram	256
15.2	Event Tree-Fault Tree Analysis	259
15.3	Accident Sequence Quantification	260
15.4	Modification of the Frequency of Loss of Containment According to the Safety Management System	261
15.5	Case Study	262
15.6	Conclusions	268
15.7	References	268
16.	Site-Specific Modification of Ground-Water Generic Criteria as Applied to a Contaminated Site	271
16.1	Development of Generic Criteria for Ground-Water--Component Selection	273
16.2	Site-Specific Modification of Generic Criteria--Value Selection	273
16.3	Risk Management Decisions Based on the Site-Speific Modified Ground-Water Criteria	286
16.4	Conclusions	289
16.5	References	289
Part IV	Future Directions	291
17.	East Meets West: Teaming on Risk Assessment	293
17.1	Why Here, Why Now?	293
17.2	Network Goals and Objectives	295
17.3	Network Organisation	296
17.4	Initial Successes	297
17.5	The Future	297
18.	Where Are We Going?	299
18.1	View from the West: Methodologies and Applications	300
18.2	View from the East: Implementation	302
18.3	As Challenges Evolve	305
18.4	References	306
Appendix A	Programme from NATO Advanced Study Institute, Risk Assessment Activities for the Cold War Facilities and Environmental Legacies	309
Appendix B	Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in Text	319
Appendix C	Cross Cultural Guide to the Book	325
	Index	363