Change and Continuity In the 2004 and 2006 Elections Book

Tables and Figures     x
About the Authors     xiv
Preface     xv
The 2004 Presidential Election     1
The Nomination Struggle     15
Who Ran     16
The Rules of the Nomination System     19
How Kerry Won     26
The Conventions     29
The General Election Campaign     34
The Strategic Context and Candidates' Choices     34
From the Spring to the Debates     36
Reversal of Fortune: The Debates Even the Race     40
Final Efforts: Air War and Ground War     42
Did the Campaign Matter?     46
The Election Results     49
The Election Rules     53
The Pattern of Results     56
State-by-State Results     59
Electoral Change in the Postwar South     65
Other Regional Changes     67
The Electoral Vote Balance     70
Voting Behavior in the 2004 Presidential Election     73
Who Voted?     79
Turnout from 1828 through 1920     79
Turnout from 1920 through 2004     83
Turnout among Social Groups     87
Why Has Turnout Declined?     94
Why Turnout Rose in 2004     100
Does Low Turnout Matter?     101
Social Forces and the Vote     107
How Social Groups Voted in 2004     108
How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years     117
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down     131
Candidates, Issues, and the Vote     134
Attitudes toward the Candidates     135
Prospective Evaluations     137
The Concerns of the Electorate     140
Issue Positions and Perceptions     143
Issue Voting Criteria     146
Apparent Issue Voting in 2004     150
Conclusion     159
Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice     160
What Is Retrospective Voting?     161
Evaluations of Governmental Performance on Important Problems     164
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent     168
Foreign Policy Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent     172
Evaluations of the Incumbent     176
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations     178
Conclusion     180
Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote     182
Party Identification: The Standard View     183
Party Identification: An Alternative View     184
Party Identification in the Electorate     186
Party Identification and the Vote     192
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations     195
Conclusion     204
The 2004 and 2006 Congressional Elections     207
Candidates and Outcomes in 2004     212
Election Outcomes in 2004     212
Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes     223
The 2004 Elections: The Impact on Congress     233
The 2006 Elections and Beyond     241
The Congressional Electorate in 2004     251
Social Forces and the Congressional Vote     251
Issues and the Congressional Vote     255
Party Identification and the Congressional Vote     256
Incumbency and the Congressional Vote     258
The Congressional Vote as Referendum     259
Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote     261
Conclusion     264
The 2006 Congressional Elections     265
The Pattern of Outcomes     265
Assessing Victory and Explaining the Results     268
National and Local Influences in Congressional Elections     272
The 2006 Elections: The Impact on Congress      287
The 2008 Elections and Beyond     293
The 2004 and 2006 Elections in Perspective     299
The 2004 and 2006 Elections and the Future of American Politics     304
Prospects for the Democrats     309
Prospects for the Republicans     315
Prospects for a New Political Party     321
Prospects for Continued Electoral Volatility     323
Appendix     325
Notes     329
Suggested Readings     396
Index     411