Pakistan: Can the United States Secure an Insecure State? Book

Preface iii

Figures ix

Tables xi

Summary xiii

Acknowledgments xxiii

Abbreviations xxv

Chapter 1 Introduction 1

Purpose 1

Organization 4

Research Approach 5

Chapter 2 Pakistan's Future: Is Past Prologue? 7

Failed Constitutionalism and Governance 8

Central Governance in Dispute 9

The Center's Relations with the Provinces and Other Areas 11

The Army: Guarantor of an Insecure State? 16

The Army's Preeminent Role in Decisionmaking 19

Regional Security and Risk Taking 21

Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons: Sources of Security and Insecurity 26

Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons 27

The Proliferation Challenges 28

Organization and Security of Pakistan's Nuclear Infrastructure 31

International Significance of Pakistan's Nuclear Challenges 33

Pakistan's Problematic Political Landscape 40

Principal Political Parties 42

Pakistan's Internal Security Challenges 48

Islamism, Militancy, and the State 51

The Post-9/11 Militant Landscape 53

Demographic Trends 58

Population Growth 58

Urbanization 59

The Economy 61

Economic Growth 61

Inflation and Fiscal Balance 63

Employment, Income Growth, and Poverty 64

Economic Outlook 67

Social Development 68

Education 69

Health 71

Concluding Remarks 72

Chapter 3 Pakistan's Ability to Mitigate Sources of Insecurity 75

The Constitution and Civil-Military Relations 76

Radical Reform Needed for Pakistan's Political Parties 77

Reasons for Optimism? 82

Taming the Military? 84

Countering Internal Security Threats 87

The Strategic Use of Militants 88

The Pakistan Government's Ability to Tackle the Militant Threat 94

Pakistan's Foreign Policy 108

Foreign Policy Objectives 109

Foreign Policymaking 112

Pakistan's Alliances and Regional Insecurities 115

Economic Policies 123

Macroeconomic Policies 123

Government Defense Spending and Other Military Revenues 124

Regulatory Policies and Privatization 127

Policies for Social Development 128

Population Policy 129

Health Policy 131

Education Policy 132

Conclusions 136

Chapter 4 How Effective Have U.S. Policies Toward Pakistan Been? 139

Divergent Priorities and Conflicted Aims: U.S. and Pakistani Objectives 139

U.S. Objectives 139

Pakistan's Objectives 144

The Problem of Conflicting Goals 149

Engaging Pakistan: U.S. Policy Instruments and Their Effectiveness 150

Security Assistance Programs 156

Military Reimbursement 158

Arms Sales and Military Training 162

The Security Development Plan 165

Other Assistance for Internal Security 168

Assistance That Is Unrelated to Security 170

Economic and Development Assistance 170

Non-U.S. Economic and Development Assistance to Pakistan 172

U.S. Public Diplomacy and Democracy Promotion Efforts 175

The Downsides of "Conditionality" 176

The Downsides of U.S. Support for Individual Pakistani Leaders 178

Conclusions 179

Chapter 5 U.S. Policy Options for Pakistan 181

Learn the Lessons of the Past 181

A New Strategy for Pakistan 182

Develop Alternative Supply Routes for Operations in Afghanistan 184

Work with Pakistan's Key Supporters to Develop Cooperative Policies 185

Forge a Strategic Dialogue with Pakistan 186

Rebalance U.S. Assistance to Increase Support to Pakistan's Civilian Institutions and People 187

Help Make Politics and Political Institutions More Professional 188

Foster the Rule of Law and Justice 190

Counternarcotics: Supply and Demand Approaches 191

U.S. Economic and Development Assistance to Pakistan 191

Military Assistance 193

Forge a Regional Strategy 196

Recommendations for the U.S. Air Force 197

Need for a Contingency Plan? 201

Bibliography 203