America: Readings in Themes and Eras Book

Allan Lichtman is a political historian who predicted that president-elect Donald Trump would win the nomination. He has also predicted every American presidential election since 1984, and his model retroactively predicts every election since 1860. He lays out his model in this book, Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House and explains how, throughout history, each presidential win the mid-19th century came about.

Lichtman's basic thesis is that every new presidential election is a referendum on the incumbent political party, and there is a basic checklist of things that the incumbent party needs to do if it wants to maintain the White House. As soon as the incumbent party fails in six (6) of 13 key areas, there is a transference of power to the other party.

Here are the 13 keys, posed as questions, and put into plain English.1. Does the incumbent party have more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives after the midterm election than it did after the previous midterm election?

2. Is there a clear choice for president for the incumbent party?

3. Is the person running for president currently the sitting president?

4. Is there not a significant third party or independent candidate?
NOTE: Typically, what counts as a significant third party candidate is whether this third party is predicted to take five per cent of the vote.

5. Is it not the case that the economy in recession during the election campaign for president?

6. Does the real per capita GDP equal or exceed the average growth the past two presidential terms?

7. Has the incumbent president made any major changes to national policy?

8. Is there no social unrest during the current presidential term?
NOTE: This one may be hard to pin down. What will count as social unrest may come down to opinion polls nationwide about the relevant issues here and to how responsibly the American people hold the current president accountable for these social problems.

9. Is the current presidential administration untainted by major scandal?

10. Is it the case that the current presidential administration has suffered no major failure in foreign or military affairs?

11. Has the incumbent administration achieved a major success in foreign or military affairs?

12. Is the incumbent party candidate perceived as charismatic or a national hero?

13. Is the challenging party candidate perceived as not charismatic, not a national hero?Again, answer NO to any six of these and the White House changes hands.

Lichtman admits that it is also quite difficult to call and may come down to the wire before the votes are taken, given that his keys are based on certain historical conditions that must come to pass. Another reason why you may be skeptical (one reason I am a little skeptical) is that there is an everything-but-the-kitchen-sink approach that Lichtman is using. You may wonder why these, of all factors, would help you determine who will control the White House. What I do find interesting, however, is if true, if these factors have truly been predictive, then they may be our best way (so far) to call the next presidency.