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Series Editor's Foreword Jan Goldman ix
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xiii
Part I General Concepts
1 Using Strategic Intelligence 3
Organization and Focus of This Book 4
Background on Strategic Intelligence and Analysis 5
Approaches and Processes 6
The Future Use of Strategic Intelligence 7
2 Strategic Intelligence: Role, Definitions, and Concepts 10
Basic Concepts about Intelligence 11
The Strategic Intelligence Process 17
The Role of Strategic Intelligence and Its Impact on Management 24
Conclusion 28
Part II Critical Observations
3 Overview of the Implementation and Impact of Strategic Intelligence 33
History of the Early Years 34
Progress in the 1990s and Beyond 35
Current Situation: Challenges for the Profession 38
Problems for Analysts 45
Summary of Observation 48
Conclusion 49
4 The Case for Establishing a National Strategic Intelligence Apparatus 51
Concepts, Application, and Management 52
Development and Application of Strategic Intelligence 55
Management and Resource Requirements 59
One Future Approach: A National Strategic Crime Intelligence Unit 62
Requirements of a Separate National Strategic Intelligence Service 65
Conclusion 68
Part III Issues for Clients and Managers
5 Why Managers and Executives Need Strategic Analysis: The Law Enforcement Model 73
Enforcement and Strategic Intelligence 74
Strategic Analysis Input to Policy Making 76
Implementing Strategic Intelligence Programs 77
Challenges for the Executive to Accept Strategic Intelligence 79
Conclusion 81
6 Management Models and Behavior: Impact on Intelligence 84
Intelligence as the Servant of the Executive 84
HistoricalPerspective on Management Style 85
Contemporary Management Approaches 87
The Present Situation 88
Blending Analytical Support and Management Thinking 89
7 Management and Self-Management of Strategic Projects and Processes 95
The Role of Intelligence Management 96
Issues and Principles 96
Managing Strategic Intelligence Projects 98
Strategic Analysts and Self-Management 99
Conclusion 100
Part IV Processes and Techniques
8 Developing Concepts: Understanding the Topic 103
Processes and Techniques for Strategic Intelligence 103
Conceptual Frameworks 105
Identifying the Features of a Strategic Topic 109
How to Develop the Conceptual Model 110
Conclusion 113
9 Defining the Task: Prescribing the Boundaries of the Project 115
Assessing the Scope of the Assignment 117
Developing the Terms of Reference 123
Additional Aspects of the Problem Definition Phase 126
Conclusion 128
10 Strategic Project Work Plans 133
Structuring a Strategic Project Work Plan 134
Designing and Presenting Work Plans 145
Conclusion 149
11 Generating Hypotheses 151
Hypotheses: Basic Concepts 153
Techniques for Generating Hypotheses 159
Using Hypotheses 162
Conclusion 166
12 Developing Indicators for Strategic Topics 168
What are Strategic Indicators? 169
A Process for Developing Indicators 170
Conclusion 175
13 Data Collection Plans for Strategic Projects 177
The Information Imperative 178
Sources of Information 179
Planning the Collection Activity 184
Strategic Research and Its Impact to Intelligence Collection Planning 190
Conclusion 192
14 Collation and Evaluation or Data 195
Collation Principles and Practice 197
The Evaluation Process in Strategic Intelligence 205
Conclusion 211
15 Deciding on Analytical Approaches 213
Preparation for Analysis 216
Resources for Analysis 217
Approaches to Intelligence Problem Solving 223
Analytical Approaches to Specific Problem Issues 227
Probability Theory: A Brief Comment 230
Conclusion 231
16 Developing Strategic Reports 234
General Concepts and Preparation 235
Presentation and Format 238
Finalizing the Report for Distribution 242
Conclusion 243
Part V The Analyst
17 The Role, Responsibilities, and Functions of the Analyst 247
The Analyst's Role and Function 247
The Analyst's Responsibilities 255
Special Challenges for the Analyst 259
Conclusion 262
Final Thought 265
Further Reading in Intelligence Analysis 267
About the Author 271
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