Analyzing Repeated Surveys, Vol. 115 Book

	Series Editor's Introduction	v
	Preface	vii
1.	Introduction	1
	Repeated Surveys: Same Questions, Different Samples	1
	Repeated Surveys Versus Panel Surveys	2
	Analytic Designs for Repeated Surveys	4
	A Note on Terminology	5
2.	Distinguishing Age, Period, and Cohort Effects	6
	Age, Period, and Cohort Effects	6
	The Identification Problem	8
	Strategies for Overcoming the Identification Problem	9
3.	Aggregate Trends	12
	Smoothing Trends	12
	Group Differences in Trends: Convergence and Divergence	14
	Empirical Example of the Divergence Model: Testing the Age Polarization Thesis	17
4.	Decomposing Aggregate Trends	20
	Intracohort Change Versus Overall Change	21
	Linear Decomposition	23
	Empirical Example: Trend in Antiblack Prejudice	26
	Algebraic Decomposition	27
	Empirical Example: Trend in Antiblack Prejudice Revisited	29
	When Does Aggregate Change Outpace Individual Change?	29
	Empirical Example of the Rule: Gender Role Attitudes	32
	Concluding Remark	35
5.	A General Model for Decomposing Aggregate Change	35
	The Model	36
	Multivariate Decomposition	39
	Example: Declining Voter Turnout in the United States	40
	Conclusion	42
6.	Detecting Change in Individual-Level Relationships	42
	The Changing-Parameter Model	42
	General Form of the Model	43
	Significance Tests for Changing Effects	45
	Two Preliminary Examples	46
	Step-by-Step Illustration of Changing-Parameter Analysis: Race and Democratic Party Identification	47
	Net Effects of Race on Democratic Party Identification	56
	Second Illustration of Changing-Parameter Model: Class and Democratic Party Identification	57
	Summary and Extensions	62
7.	Summary: Analyzing Social Change	63
	Notes	66
	References	68
	About the Author	72