Rational Choice In An Uncertain World Book

	Preface
1	Thinking and Deciding	1
1.1	Decision Making Is a Skill	1
1.2	Thinking: Automatic and Controlled	3
1.3	The Computational Model of the Mind	7
1.4	Through Darkest Psychoanalytic Theory and Behaviorism to Cognition	12
1.5	Quality of Choice: Rationality	17
1.6	The Invention of Modern Decision Theory	19
2	What Is Decision Making?	25
2.1	Definition of a Decision	25
2.2	Picturing Decisions	29
2.3	Decision Quality Revisited	33
2.4	Incomplete Thinking: A Legal Example	34
2.5	Overinclusive Thinking: Sunk Costs	36
2.6	The Rationality of Considering Only the Future	42
2.7	The Rest of This Book	45
3	A General Framework for Judgment	47
3.1	A Conceptual Framework for Judgment and Prediction	47
3.2	Research in the Lens Model Framework	51
3.3	Capturing Judgment in Statistical Models	55
3.4	How Do Statistical Models Beat Human Judgment?	58
3.5	Practical Implications of the Surprising Success of the Linear Model	62
3.6	Objections and Rebuttals	64
3.7	The Role of Judgment in Choices and Decisions	69
4	Judgments From Memory	73
4.1	Going Beyond the Information Given	73
4.2	Availability of Memories	78
4.3	Biased Samples in Memory	80
4.4	Biased Sampling From Memory	84
4.5	Availability to the Imagination	90
4.6	From Availability to Probability and Causality	92
4.7	Heuristic Thinking: Adaptive or Just Plain Stupid?	95
5	Anchoring and Adjustment	99
5.1	Salient Values	99
5.2	Anchoring and (Insufficient) Adjustment	100
5.3	Anchoring the Past in the Present	107
6	Judgment by Similarity	111
6.1	Same Old Things	111
6.2	Representative Thinking	115