States, Scarcity, and Civil Strife in the Developing World Book

"Forces of Fortune" is a pretty good book, but I feel a little like a victim of a bait-and-switch. The subtitle is "The Rise of the New Muslim Middle Class and What it Will Mean for Our World," which I took to mean that the book would be heavily focused on economics, but the book is very much focused on cultural, religious, and historical issues. I was disappointed that there wasn't more of an economic focus. It's also shoddily written in places. That said, I still learned a good deal.

The main thing I took away from the book is that Islamic fundamentalism is widespread, it's here to stay, and it's not the malevolent force we believe it to be. As I understand him, Nasr is defining Islamic fundamentalism broadly, as a movement by individuals to make Islam a more central focus of their lives. Fundamentalism is not necessarily corroborated with poor economics'even Turkey, the bright beacon of the Middle East, is becoming more fundamentalist even as its economy and European integration continue to boom. Nasr divorces fundamentalism from theocracy. He says that the harsh, politicized interpretation of Islam had its zenith in the Iranian Revolution, and while the Iranian clerics expected the revolution to spread, it never did. Radical, murderous Islam is of course a problem, but it's certainly not the prevailing view in the Muslim world. The interpretations of Islam vary widely all over the Muslim world.

The main economic thread running through the book is Nasr's condemnation of Kemalism, which is the idea pioneered by Turkey's founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Kemalism as Nasr explains it is a strong centralized government which is secular in nature and directs the economy from the top-down. While initially successful, it has failed spectacularly over the decades, leading to inefficient, corrupt societies in Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey, until the latter's flourishing. The worst thing about Kemalism is that it has prevented the rise of an entrepreneurial middle class across the Middle East.

Nasr's thesis that economic liberation will change the Middle East is provocative, but it's not entirely convincing to me. While economic liberation has lead to more political liberation in other countries, there is much more to it than that. He also argues that dumping sanctions against Iran and fostering economic ties is the approach we should be taking, but as much as I fear war with Iran, I don't see much alternative to our sanctions regime. However, putting our main focus on economic ties in Iran and the wider Middle East may be worth a try, as our track record so far is less than stellar.

After reading the book, I was also struck by how much has changed since its publication. The "Arab Awakening" has transformed the Middle East (especially Egypt), though the results of the movement are far from being clear. Still, Iran has serious economic issues and Pakistan is a political and cultural nightmare.