Bigger than Chaos: Understanding Complexity through Probability Book

	Note to the Reader
1	The Simple Behavior of Complex Systems	1
1.1	Simplicity in Complex Systems	2
1.2	Enion Probability Analysis	12
1.3	Towards an Understanding of Enion Probabilities	27
2	The Physics of Complex Probability	38
2.1	Complex Probability Quantified	39
2.2	Microconstant Probability	47
2.3	The Interpretation of IC-Variable Distributions	70
2.4	Probabilistic Networks	73
2.5	Standard IC-Variables	81
2.6	Complex Probability and Probabilistic Laws	96
2.7	Effective and Critical IC-Values	101
2.A	The Method of Arbitrary Functions	118
2.B	More on the Tossed Coin	122
2.C	Proofs	127
3	The Independence of Complex Probabilities	139
3.1	Stochastic Independence and Selection Rules	140
3.2	Probabilities of Composite Events	141
3.3	Causal Independence	145
3.4	Microconstancy and Independence	150
3.5	The Probabilistic Patterns Explained	161
3.6	Causally Coupled Experiments	163
3.7	Chains of Linked IC-Values	178
3.A	Conditional Probability	213
3.B	Proofs	214
4	The Simple Behavior of Complex Systems Explained	249
4.1	Representing Complex Systems	250
4.2	Enion Probabilities and Their Experiments	251
4.3	The Structure of Microdynamics	253
4.4	Microconstancy and Independence of Enion Probabilities	263
4.5	Independence of Microdynamic Probabilities	275
4.6	Aggregation of Enion Probabilities	286
4.7	Grand Conditions for Simple Macrolevel Behavior	292
4.8	Statistical Physics	293
4.9	Population Ecology	319
5	Implications for the Philosophy of the Higher-Level Sciences	333
5.1	Reduction	333
5.2	Higher-Level Laws	339
5.3	Causal Relevance	346
5.4	The Social Sciences	351
5.5	The Mathematics of Complex Systems	355
5.6	Are There Simple Probabilities?	357
	Notes	363
	Glossary	387
	References	397
	Index	403