Forty Signs of Rain Book

"When the Arctic ice pack was first measured by nuclear submarines in the 1950's, it averaged thirty feet thick in midwinter. By the end of the century it was down to fifteen. Then one August the ice broke up into large tabular bergs, drifting on the currents, colliding and separating, leaving broad lanes of water open to the continuous polar summer sunlight. The next year the breakup started in July, and at times more than half the surface of the Arctic Ocean was open water. The third year, the breakup began in May. That was last year."

KSR is an erudite. I've said it before and I will say it again; the amount of knowledge he possesses in every domain is astounding. This book here is no exception: it deals with climate change and its implications on people, from the average citizen, to scientists, lobbyists, senators up to presidential staff and also on political, economic and social environment.

It hardly can be considered sci-fi; dystopia will be more accurate for the time being, because, in few years, I think it will become non-fiction. Or fiction, from characters point of view, but based on real events.

And even if it's not an easy book to read, mostly because of all the details about scientists' work (genetics leading to bio-engineering), bureaucracy and political agendas (which I rarely digest) it is one of his most compelling works. The tension is gradually building - the polar cap is melting, tides are rising, storms multiply and intensify. With this in background, scientists are trying all they can to raise awareness about the global warming and its catastrophic consequences but their efforts are constantly rejected in favor of economics:

"Meanwhile humanity is exceeding the planet's carrying capacity for our species, badly damaging the biosphere. Neoclassical economics cannot cope with this situation, and indeed, with its falsely exteriorized costs, was designed in part to disguise it. If the Earth were to suffer a catastrophic anthropogenic extinction event over the next ten years, which it will, American business would continue to focus on its quarterly profit and loss. There is no economic mechanism for dealing with catastrophe."

And even if it's not at all an optimistic book, it has some hilarious situations, most of them provided by one of the character's toddler. I truly laughed out loud and they are perfectly fitted into the story.

What is happening now in US, the withdrawal from Paris agreement and the nonsense about carbon dioxide not being one of the major factors in climate change is, more or less, what you'll find in this book (of course, Paris Agreement did not exist when the book was written, but Kyoto Protocol is mentioned). Anyway, stunning to see the resemblance to what is happening these days.

"The thing is, Mr. President, the world's climate can shift very rapidly. There are scenarios in which the general warming causes parts of the Northern Hemisphere to get quite cold, especially in Europe. If that were to happen, Europe could become something like the Yukon of Asia."
"Really!" the President said. "Are we sure that would be a bad thing? Just kidding of course."
"Of course sir, ha ha."
The President fixed him with a look of mock displeasure. "Well, Charles, all that may be true, but we don't know for sure if any of that is the result of human activity. Isn't that a fact?"
"Depends on what you mean by 'know for sure,'" Charlie said doggedly. "Two and a half billion tons of carbon per year, that's got to make a difference, it's just plain physics. You could say it isn't for sure that the sun will come up tomorrow morning, and in a limited sense you'd be right, but I'll bet you the sun will come up."

Bottom line: if you'd like to know how KSR envisioned nowadays, go and read the book. Grim and frightening scenario but so very plausible.