Clear thinking with psychology Book

1. Evaluating the Quality of Sources. Sharpening and Leveling. Criteria for Evaluating the Quality of Sources. Popularity. Reviews. The Internet as a Research Tool. The Content of Web Sites. Internet Searches. Thinking for Yourself. 2. Introduction: Pseudoscience and the Need for Clear Thinking. Separating Sense from Nonsense. Studying Human Reasoning. Systematic Errors Reveal Our Mental Shortcuts. The Pros and Cons of Relying on Shortcuts. Thinking Clearly. Applying the Tools of Clear Thinking. Ten Characteristics of Pseudoscience. Outward Appearance of Science. Absence of Skeptical Peer Review. Reliance on Personal Experience. Evasion of Risky Tests. Retreats to the Supernatural. The Mantra of Holism. Tolerance of Inconsistencies. Appeals to Authority. Promising the Impossible. Stagnation. The Plan of this Book. Part One: Deception. Part Two: Self-Deception. Part Three: Psychological Tricks. Part Four: Decision Making and Ethics. 3. Language: Misleading and Evasive Tactics. Weasel Words and Framing Effects. Cooperation and Conversational Maxims. Quality: The Myth of "Health Food." Quantity: Suggestive and Leading Questions. Relation: The Irrelevant Language of "Alternative" Health Care. Manner: The Emptiness of "Holism." Closing Thoughts: False Dichotomies and the Slippery Slope. 4. Magic: The Allure of Exotic Rituals, Fantasy, and Mysticism. Believing in Magic. Wishful Thinking. Belief in a Vitalistic Energy. Putting the "Human Energy Field" to the Test. The Creation of Superstitions and Exotic Rituals. Superstitions as Representative Thinking. Maintenance of Superstitions. Abuses of Science in Favor of Mysticism. The Magic of Modern Technology. 5. Authority: Appeals to Blind Obedience. Milgram's Obedience Research. Understanding Milgram's Results. When Should We Obey? Untrustworthy Authorities. The "Ancient Wisdom" Fallacy. The Popularity Fallacy. The Fallacy of Self-Proclaimed Expertise. Political Lobbying as a Warning Flag. The National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine. The Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act. 6. Experience: The Limitations of Testimonials as Evidence. Self-Deception. Competing Explanations. The Placebo Effect. Spontaneous Remission. The Disease Ran Its Natural Course. The Cyclical Nature of Many Diseases. Misdiagnosis. The "Worried Well." Symptomatic Relief. Hedged Bets. Derivative Benefits. Psychological Distortion of Reality. The Bottom Line. Probabilistic General Principles. 7. Plausibility: All Beliefs Are Not Created Equal. Magnet Therapy: Claims VS. Reality. Magnets and Water. Magnets and the Human Body. The Strength of "Therapeutic" Magnets. Homeopathy: Empty Promises. The Law of Similars. The Law of Infinitesimals. Evasive Maneuver #1: Lowering the Dilution Factor. Evasive Maneuver #2: "Water Memory." Alien Abductions: A Modern-Day Misunderstanding. The Contamination Effect. Dull Fantasies and Contradictions. Sleep Paralysis. 8. Association: Establishing and Interpreting Correlations. Presuming an Association Through Mere Examples. Presuming an Association Through a Lone Rate. Interpreting a Correlation. Causal Relationships Between Correlated Events. Three Conditions for Causality. Examining Patterns Across Multiple Correlations. Beware the Media. Do Horoscopes Predict Anything? 9. Science: Evaluating Claims to Knowledge. Scientific Reasoning. Falsifiability. Logic. Comprehensiveness. Honesty. Replicability. Sufficiency. Anti-Scientific Beliefs: Postmodernism and Other Fallacious Ideas. Postmodernism. The "What Works is Different for Everybody" Fallacy. The "Probability is Irrelevant to the Unique Individual" Fallacy. The Rejection of Science as a Pseudoscientist's Dream. 10. Risk: Biased Perceptions and the Media Paradox. Vividness. Availability. The Media Paradox. Falling Airplane Parts Revisited. A Radical Conjecture. Mindful Attention to Media Reports. 11. Belief: Confirmation Bias, Post-Hockery, and Overconfidence. Discovery vs. Verification: The Importance of Prediction. The Bible Code. The "Hot Hand" in Basketball. Confirmation Bias. The Rorschach Ink Blot Test. Graphology: Handwriting Analysis. Polygraphy: The "Lie Detector" Test. Absent or Misleading Feedback. Hindsight Bias and Overconfidence. Foiling Post-Hockery. Answers to the Confidence Quiz. 12. Schemes: The Seductiveness of Grand Conspiracy Theories. The Three Roles in a Conspiracy Theory. Conspirators. Saviors. Dupes. A Grand Conspiracy Theory: "Area 51." The Role of the Media. Thinking Clearly About Area 51. Problems Facing Any Grand Conspiracy Theory. The "Hidden Cure" Conspiracy. Intense Competition is Ignored. The Alleged Profit Motive Makes No Sense. Science is Never Going to Cure All Disease. Monumental Callousness is Presumed. Why Does the Theory of Hidden Cures Persist? Challenging Conspiracies. 13. Illusions: The Perception of Control. The Illusion of Control. The Certainty Effect. The Dangers of Illusions of Control. Belief in the "Just World" and the Blaming of Victims. Self-Blame. Learned Helplessness. The Downside to Mental Imagery. The "Choose to be Healthy" Fallacy. Prayer and Religion-Motivated Medical Neglect. 14. Assessment: Classical Decision Theory. Mammograms. Classical Decision Theory. The Impact of Low Base Rates. Lie Detection. Two Different Perspectives on Accuracy. The Impact of Selection Ratios. Nutritional Scams. Validity. Base Rates. Selection Ratio. Protecting Against Professional Misconduct. 15. Decisions: Clinical Vs. Statistical Approaches. Two Approaches to Decision Making. Why is the Statistical Approach Superior. Validity. Units of Measurement. Reliability. Redundancy. Regression Effects. Adherence to the Clinical Approach. Knowledge Deficit. Fear of Computers. Fear of Unemployment. Belief in the Efficacy of One's Judgment. Theoretical Identifications. The "Dehumanizing" Feel of Statistical Equations. Mistaken Conception of Ethics. Embracing Statistical Decisions. Pro/Con Lists. Professional. Professional Practice. Statistics Do Apply to the Individual. 16. Ethics: The Use and Promotion of Unverified Treatments. Overlooking the Obvious in Favor of the Unlikely. Repressed Memories and Multiple Personalities. Cost-Benefit Ratio. Skewed Projections of Benefit and Harm. The Overlooked Opportunity Costs. Truly Informed Consent and Patient Autonomy. The "Health Freedom" Fallacy. 17. Tools: Suggestions for Clear Thinking. The Dangers of a Pseudoscientific Approach to Health Care. Thinking Clearly. Reconceptualize Issues in Multiple Ways. Beware of Wishful Thinking. Consider the Legitimacy of Authorities. Seek Risky Tests, Not Weak Confirmation. Don''t Be Misled By Testimonials. Keep in Touch With Reality. Remember That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation. Beware the Media Paradox. Formulate Multiple Working Hypotheses. Ask What Can Be Predicted. Challenge Conspiracy Theories. Watch Out for Illusions of Control. Be Careful Not to Blame Victims. Consider Both Positive and Negative Consequence of a Claim. Pay Attention to Base Rates. Accept Some Mistakes in Order to Minimize Error. Take Advantage of the Power of Statistical Decision Making. Don''t Misinterpret Regression Toward the Mean. Consider Both Costs and Benefits. Practice Scientific Reasoning. A Closing Thought on Wishful Thinking. References. InfoTrac Keywords. Figure Captions.