The History of Econometric Ideas Book

List of figures; Preface; Acknowledgements; Introduction;

Part I. Business Cycles: Introduction to business cycles;

1. Sunspot and Venus theories of the business cycle: 1.1. Jevons' sunspot theory; 1.2. Moore's Venus theory; 1.3. The decline of periodic cycle analysis;
2. Measuring and representing business cycles: 2.1. Juglar's credit cycle; 2.2. The statistical approach of W. C. Mitchell; 2.3. Persons and business barometers; 2.4. The business cycle research institutes; 2.5. Statistical economics and econometrics; Addendum: graphs and graphic methods;
3. Random shocks enter the business cycle scene: 3.1. The experiments of Yule and Slutsky; 3.2. Frisch's time-series analysis; 3.3. Frisch's rocking horse model of the business cycle;
4. Tinbergen and macrodynamic models: 4.1. The Dutch model; 4.2. The first League of Nations' report; 4.3. The second League of Nations' report; 4.4. the critical reaction to Tinbergen's work;

Part II. Demand Analysis: Introduction to demand analysis;
5. Narrowing the data-theory gap in demand analysis: 5.1. Difficulties in early statistical measurements of demand; 5.2. Static theory and time-series data; 5.3. Econometric models of demand; 5.4. The data-theory gap under review;
6. The evolution of identification questions: 6.1. The emergence of correspondence problems; 6.2. Identifying the demand curve; 6.3. The identification of two relationships; 6.4. Back to the single demand curve;

Part III. Formal models in econometrics: Introduction to formal models;
7. Errors-in-variables and errors-in equations models: 7.1. Errors and the single equation; 7.2. Errors andinterdependent relationships; 7.3. Postscript: measurement errors and the method of instrumental variables;
8. Haavelmo's probability model: 8.1. Statistics without probability; 8.2. Signs of change; 8.3. Haavelmo's probabilistic revolution in econometrics; 8.4. The new consensus; Conclusion; References; Index.