Decision, Probability and Utility: Selected Readings Book

	List of contributors	vii
	Preface	ix
1	Introduction: Bayesian decision theory - foundations and problems	1
Part I	Foundations of Bayesian decision theory
2	Truth and probability	19
3	Individual decision making under uncertainty	48
4	The sure-thing principle	80
5	Probable knowledge	86
Part II	Conceptualization of probability and utility
	Introduction	97
6	Bets and beliefs	101
7	Slightly more realistic personal probability	118
8	Risk aversion as a problem of conjoint measurement	136
Part III	Questionable rules of rationality
	Introduction	159
9	Allais' paradox	163
10	Sure-thing doubts	166
11	Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk	183
12	Generalized expected utility analysis and the nature of observed violations of the independence axiom	215
Part IV	Unreliable probabilities
	Introduction	241
13	Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms	245
14	Self-knowledge, uncertainty, and choice	270
15	On indeterminate probabilities	287
16	Unreliable probabilities, risk taking, and decision making	313
Part V	Causal decision theory
	Introduction	335
17	Counterfactuals and two kinds of expected utility	341
18	Causal decision theory	377
19	Ratifiability and stability	406
	References	426
	Name index	443
	Subject index	447