Operational Weather Forecasting Book

Series Foreword vii

Preface ix

Acknowledgements xiii

1 Introduction 1

1.1 A brief history of operational weather forecasting 2

2 The Nature of theWeather Forecasting Problem 9

2.1 Atmospheric predictability 9

2.2 The importance of observations in weather forecasting 13

2.3 An overview of the operational forecast process 17

Summary 25

3 Meteorological Observations 27

3.1 What do we need from a meteorological observing system? 27

3.2 Data transmission and processing 29

3.3 Observing platforms 31

Summary 51

4 NWP Models – the Basic Principles 53

4.1 The basic ingredients of an NWP model 55

4.2 Building the physical principles into a model 79

4.3 Setting the initial conditions for the forecast 89

Summary 107

5 Designing Operational NWP Systems 109

5.1 Practical considerations for an NWP suite 109

5.2 Ensemble prediction systems 124

5.3 Model output – what can NWP models produce? 130

5.4 Using NWP output to drive other forecast models 144

Summary 148

6 The Role of the Human Forecaster 149

6.1 The role of the senior forecasting team 150

6.2 Production of forecasts for customers 163

Summary 175

7 Forecasting at Longer Time Ranges 177

7.1 Where does the predictability come from in longer range forecasts? 178

7.2 Observations of ocean and land surface variables 185

7.3 Monthly to seasonal forecasting systems 187

7.4 Presentation of longer range forecasts 200

Summary 204

8 Forecast Verification 205

8.1 Deterministic forecast verification 208

8.2 Verification of probability forecasts 216

8.3 Subjective verification 219

Summary 222

References 223

Index 227