Experiment!: Planning, Implementing and Interpreting Book

Preface xi

Part One Understanding the World

1 You, the Discoverer 3

1.1 Venturing into the Unknown 4

1.2 Embarking on a Ph.D 5

1.3 The Art of Discovery 5

1.4 About this Book 7

1.5 How to Use this Book 8

Further Reading 10

References 10

2 What is Science? 11

2.1 Characteristics of the Scientific Approach 11

2.2 The Inductive Method 14

2.3 The Hypothetico-Deductive Method 16

2.4 Consequences of Falsification 19

2.5 The Role of Confirmation 21

2.6 Perception is Personal 23

2.7 The Scientific Community 29

2.8 Summary 30

Further Reading 31

References 31

3 Science’s Childhood 33

3.1 Infancy 33

3.2 Ionian Dawn 34

3.3 Divine Mathematics 38

3.4 Adolescence – Revolution! 41

3.5 The Children of the Revolution 47

3.6 Summary 50

Further Reading 50

References 51

4 Science Inclined to Experiment 53

4.1 Galileo’s Important Experiment 54

4.2 Experiment or Hoax? 56

4.3 Reconstructing the Experiment 58

4.4 Getting the Swing of Things 60

4.5 The Message from the Plane 62

4.6 Summary 63

References 64

5 Scientists, Engineers and Other Poets 65

5.1 Research and Development 65

5.2 Characteristics of Research 68

5.3 Building Theories 70

5.4 The Relationship between Theory and Reality 75

5.5 Creativity 77

5.6 Summary 79

Further Reading 80

References 80

Part Two Interfering with the World

6 Experiment! 83

6.1 What is an Experiment? 83

6.2 Questions, Answers and Experiments 85

6.3 A Gallery of Experiments 88

6.4 Reflections on the Exhibition 108

6.5 Summary 110

Further Reading 110

References 112

7 Basic Statistics 113

7.1 The Role of Statistics in Data Analysis 113

7.2 Populations and Samples 115

7.3 Descriptive Statistics 116

7.4 Probability Distribution 122

7.5 The Central Limit Effect 126

7.6 Normal Probability Plots 129

7.7 Confidence Intervals 132

7.8 The t-Distribution 134

7.9 Summary 136

Further Reading 137

References 138

8 Statistics for Experiments 139

8.1 A Teatime Experiment 139

8.2 The Importance of Randomization 141

8.3 One-Sided and Two-Sided Tests 142

8.4 The t-Test for One Sample 143

8.5 The Power of a Test 148

8.6 Comparing Two Samples 150

8.7 Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) 155

8.8 A Measurement System Analysis 159

8.9 Other Useful Hypothesis Tests 163

8.10 Interpreting p-Values 164

8.11 Correlation 165

8.12 Regression Modeling 167

8.13 Summary 171

Further Reading 172

References 173

9 Experimental Design 175

9.1 Statistics and the Scientific Method 175

9.2 Designs with One Categorical Factor 176

9.3 Several Categorical Factors: the Full Factorial Design 178

9.4 Are Interactions Important? 186

9.5 Factor Screening: Fractional Factorial Designs 187

9.6 Determining the Confounding Pattern 188

9.7 Design Resolution 190

9.8 Working with Screening Designs 191

9.9 Continuous Factors: Regression and Response Surface Methods 195

9.10 Summary 207

Further Reading 208

References 209

10 Phase I: Planning 211

10.1 The Three Phases of Research 211

10.2 Experiment 1: Visual Orientation in a Beetle 213

10.3 Experiment 2: Lift-Off Length in a Diesel Engine 216

10.4 Finding Out What is Not Known 218

10.5 Determining the Scope 221

10.6 Tools for Generating Hypotheses 222

10.7 Thought Experiments 227

10.8 Planning Checklist 229

10.9 Summary 231

References 233

11 Phase II: Data Collection 235

11.1 Generating Understanding from Data 235

11.2 Measurement Uncertainty 236

11.3 Developing a Measurement System 238

11.4 Measurement System Analysis 244

11.5 The Data Collection Plan 248

11.6 Summary 251

Further Reading 252

References 252

12 Phase III: Analysis and Synthesis 253

12.1 Turning Data into Information 253

12.2 Graphical Analysis 256

12.3 Mathematical Analysis 259

12.4 Writing a Scientific Paper 260

12.5 Writing a Ph.D. Thesis 264

12.6 Farewell 266

12.7 Summary 266

Further Reading 266

References 267

Appendix 269

Standard Normal Probabilities 269

Probability Points for the t-Distribution 270

Index 271