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Foreword ix
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
Part I Getting Started in Technology 1
Chapter 1 Technology Basics 3
More Than Gadgets ... A Means 4
Technology 101 7
Starting Small: Semiconductors 7
Getting Larger: Products and Components 12
Making It All Work: Software and Services 20
Chapter 2 A Brief History of Modern Technology 25
The Snowball Event: History of Semiconductors 26
History of Computers 31
History of Communications 35
History of the internet 37
Chapter 3 Technology Sector Drivers 43
Economic Drivers 43
Political Drivers 57
Sentiment Drivers 61
Part II Next Steps: Technology Details 67
Chapter 4 Technology Sector Breakdown 69
Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) 69
Global Technology Benchmarks 71
Technology Industry Breakdown 75
Chapter 5 Challenges in the Information Technology Sector 99
Product Maturity and Obsolescence 99
Fighting Maturity and Obsolescence 101
Extreme Fluctuations in Supply and Demand 110
Intellectual Property Threats 113
Chapter 6 A Deeper Look at Current and Emerging Technologies 117
Semiconductor Production Process 118
Emerging Manufacturing Technologies 122
Computer Technology 124
Part III Thinking Like a Portfolio Manager 131
Chapter 7 The Top-Down Method 133
Investing Is a Science 133
Einstein's Brain and the Stock Market 134
The Top-Down Method 136
Top-Down Deconstructed 141
Managing Against a Technology Benchmark 149
Chapter 8 Security Analysis 155
Make Your Selection 156
A Five-Step Process 157
Important Questions to Ask 165
Chapter 9 Upgrading Your Portfolio-Investing Strategies 175
Strategy 1 Adding Value at the Sector Level 176
Strategy 2 Adding Value at the Industry Level 178
Strategy 3 Adding Value at the Security Level 183
Strategy 4 Adding Value in a Technology Sector Downturn 184
Strategy 5 Venture Capital 185
Good Luck! 186
Glossary 187
Notes 194
About the Authors 201
Index 202
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