Analyzing Elections: The New Institutionalism in American Politics Book

Acknowledgments     xiii
How Elections Rule American Politics     3
Bush versus Gore, September 11, and American Elections     3
Actors and Institutions     5
Election Games     8
The Plan of the Book     9
The Message of the Book     12
A Note to the Reader     13
Fundamentals     17
Understanding Turnout     19
Three Things     19
Three Puzzles     21
Consumption versus Investment     28
Togetherness: The Group Investment Benefits of Voting     29
Consumption and Citizen Duty Redux     33
Voting Rationally and Turning Out Irrationally     41
The Forty-Five-Year Lag Revisited     45
The Final Puzzle-Why Did Turnout Decline in the 1970s?     50
What We Know     55
What We Don't Know: Why Turnout Rebounded in 2004     56
Study Questions and Problems     56
Appendix to Chapter 2     57
Trends in Voter Mobilization     62
Mobilization Strategies in the 2004 Election     62
The Good, the Bad, and the Institutions     71
Making Voting Cheap and Easy     74
Financing Turnout     84
What We Know     85
What We Don't Know: Candidates and Parties     86
Study Questions and Problems     86
Candidates, Primaries, and Ideological Divergence     90
Brothers in Office     90
Why Moderation Attracts in U.S. Elections     91
Moderation: Virtue or Vice?     96
A Battle for the Left     101
How Parties Affect Candidates' Positions     102
Uncertainty and Extremism     108
Variations in Primary Systems     113
Opening Primaries and Party Control     116
Ambition, Ideology, and Divergence     120
What We Know     124
What We Don't Know: Red States versus Blue States     124
Study Questions and Problems     125
Polarized over Policy or Voting on Valence?     128
A War between the States?     128
The Arguments behind the Polarized View: A Closer Look     137
Income Inequality, Immigration, and Polarization     170
Do Voters Base Choices on Issues or Abilities?     172
What We Know     178
What We Don't Know: What Money Does     178
Study Questions and Problems     179
Money and the Mass Media      183
How Campaigns Are Financed     185
The Desperate Man     185
Who Makes Contributions?     187
Federal Campaign Finance Regulations     190
Giving to Elect or to Receive?     197
Giving to Elect     199
Giving to Receive     202
Evidence on Quid Pro Quo Contributions     207
Coordination and the Decisiveness of Money     209
Policy versus Service Redux     212
What We Know     213
What We Don't Know: Opening Up the Black Box     213
Study Questions and Problems     214
How Campaign Money Affects Voters     217
Inside the Black Box: Indirect Influences     217
Inside the Black Box: Direct Influences     221
Empirical Evidence on Campaign Advertising     231
What We Know     242
What We Don't Know: Other Sources of Information     243
Study Questions and Problems     243
The Mass Media and Voters' Information     247
Candidate Information and the Media     247
A Biased Information Source?     250
The Sources and Effects of Media Bias     258
What We Know     281
What We Don't Know: A Referendum on Whom?     282
Study Questions and Problems     283
The Problems of Incomplete Information in Elections     289
Controlling the Behavior of Elected Officials     291
William Goodling's Unusual Election     291
A Return to Citizen Legislators     292
The Secret World of Incumbents     292
What the Voters May Not Know about Incumbents     294
Controlling Incumbents by Getting Information     299
Controlling Elected Officials on the Basis of Little Information     301
Empirical Evidence     304
Retrospective Voting and the Economy     306
Retrospective Voting and Parties     310
Should Incumbency Be Limited?     312
The Puzzle of the Increase in Term Limits     316
Voters' Changing the Electoral Calendar     317
Referenda and Initiatives     321
Elected versus Appointed Officials     323
What We Know     326
What We Don't Know: What Voters Want     327
Study Questions and Problems     328
Measuring Public Opinion     332
Psephology Failures     332
Public Opinion Polls and Elections     334
Show Me the Money      347
Election Night and Projecting Winners     353
Forecasting Elections before Campaigns Begin     368
What Do We Learn about Elections from Psephology Failures?     374
Do Elected Officials Read Polls?     374
Retrospective Voting and Public Opinion Polls     377
What Do Public Opinion Polls Tell Elected Officials?     381
What We Know     386
What We Don't Know: Other Reasons Why Goodling's Election Was Special     387
Study Questions and Problems     388
Federal Elections     395
Congressional Elections     397
Trying to Make a Difference     397
Apportionment and Membership of the House of Representatives     398
Redistricting     402
Gerrymandering     407
Does Gerrymandering Give Incumbents an Advantage?     423
The Decision to Run     426
Senate Elections     436
Are Congressional Races Special?     438
Not All Members Are Equal     439
Seniority, Elections, and Incumbency     441
Party Control, Positions of Power, and Upward Political Mobility     444
What We Know     446
What We Don't Know: Moving Down the Street      446
Study Questions and Problems     447
Presidential Primaries     452
Skipping Around or Sitting in Place?     452
What It Takes to Get on the Ballot in the Primaries     453
Hyperspeed     455
What It Takes to Get Nominated     458
How the Current System Works     471
How the Current System Works: The Evidence     484
Views of the State of Primaries     487
What We Know     489
What We Don't Know: The Next Step     489
Study Questions and Problems     490
Presidential Elections     494
Going West     494
How the Electoral College Works     495
The Electoral College and Campaigning     499
The Electoral Vote and Government Spending     513
Voters and Divided Government     515
What Happened to the Patient's Bill of Rights?     534
More Checks and Balances     535
What We Know     537
What We Don't Know: Other Parties and Candidates     538
Study Questions and Problems     538
Challenging the Majority     543
Minor Parties and Independent Candidates     545
Winning by Division      545
Voters' Choices in Three-Candidate Elections     546
Choosing Whether to Party     550
Moving to More Than One Dimension     552
Can Minor-Party or Independent Candidates Succeed in U.S. Elections?     557
How Influential Are Minor-Party and Independent Candidates?     562
Do Voters Vote Strategically?     568
Party Labels as Information and Coordination Devices     573
Nonpartisan Elections, Majority Requirements, and Coordination     574
Not Unique but Rare...     579
The Implications for Policy Choices     580
How Failing to Support David Worley Hurt the Democrats in 2000     584
What We Know     585
What We Don't Know: The Major Political Parties and Civil Rights     586
Study Questions and Problems     588
Minority Voters and Representation     592
The Dilemma of Representation     592
What It Was Like     594
The South Today     595
The Current Rise in Diversity     599
Defining Minority Representation     600
Vote Denial     602
Vote Dilution     608
Vote Dilution, the Fifteenth Amendment, and the Voting Rights Act     616
Majority-Minority Districts and the Redistricting Debate of the 1990s     618
Majority-Minority Districts and Other Minorities     621
Are Majority-Minority Districts Good for Minorities?     625
The Future of Redistricting     632
Vote Denial Today     634
What We Know     637
Study Questions and Problems     637
The Future and Analyzing Elections     641
The 2008 Presidential Contest     641
The Message and What We Know Redux     642
References     645
Index     673