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Acknowledgments Preface
I: Theories and Evidence
1: Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview
2: Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective
3: Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U.S. Economic Fluctuations
4: Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements
5: Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau
II: History and Measurement
6: How Trends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction
7: Business Cycles and Growth
8: The Regularity of Business Cycles
9: Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy
III: Indicators
10: Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses
11: Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators
12: Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes Phillip Braun
IV: Forecasting
13: On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions
14: An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts
15: The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts
16: Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts
17: Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction Louis A. Lambros
18: The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting References Author Index Subject Index
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David Lewis
reviewed Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting on May 23, 2020
Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting
Well written book to put the discipline into perspective. my favorite line form the book:
"What motivates economic activity is the delusion that we can guess the future, and expertise is deployed, unbeknownst to itself, to protect us from discovering in fact we can't do so, a discovery that would lead us to despair and paralysis. The joke is that capitalism's advantage is that it maximizes the number of people who have this delusion."
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