The 2008 Elections Book

I. The Political Environment (pp. 1-5)

A. An Economy in Crisis

B. An Administration in Turmoil

C. A Nation at War

D. A Deeply Discontented Electorate

1. Public Opinion on the President, the Economy, and the War

2. Republican Losses in 2006 Midterm Elections

3. Shifting Opinions of the Parties (Figure 1: Party Identification in the U.S. Electorate, 2004-2008)

II. The Presidential Nominations (pp. 6-25)

A. The Calendar: Frontloading with a Vengeance

B. The Candidates

1. The Republicans: No Incumbent and No Clear Favorite

2. The Democrats: Hillary vs. the Field

C. The Early Contests: Winnowing the Field

1. The Iowa Caucuses

2. The New Hampshire Primary

3. The South Carolina Primary

D. Super Tuesday

1. The Republicans: McCain Emerges as the Clear Favorite

2. The Democrats: A Two Person Race

E. After Super Tuesday

1. McCain Locks up the Nomination

2. Hillary Falters, Obama Takes the Lead

F. The Democratic Endgame

1. Hillary’s Comeback: Too Little, Too Late

2. Nagging Questions about Florida and Michigan

G. How They Did It

1. McCain vs. a Divided Conservative Field

2. Obama Outmaneuvers the Clinton Machine

3. The Impact of Rules, Demographics, and Money

H. The Enthusiasm Gap (Table 1: Turnout in Super Tuesday Primaries)

III. The Vice-Presidential Candidates and National Conventions (pp. 26-30)

A. The Democrats

1. Obama Plays it Safe with Biden

2. The Democratic Convention: Healing the Wounds and Uniting the Party

B. The Republicans

1. McCain Gambles on Palin

2. The Republican Convention: After the Storm

IV. The General Election Campaigns (pp. 31-50)

A. The Money Game (Table 2: Fundraising by Presidential Candidates and (National Party Committees)

B. The Messages

1. Change vs. Change

2. Negative Ads and Scare Tactics

3. The 527 Campaign

C. Voter Mobilization

D. The Debates

E. The Race to the Finish Line

F. The Results

1. Turnout

2. The Popular Vote (Table 3: The National Popular Vote)

3. The Electoral Vote (Figure 2: The 2008 Electoral Map)

V. Explaining the Results

A. The Changing Demographic and Partisan Composition of the Electorate (Table 4: The Composition of the Electorate in 2008 vs. 2004)

B. Group Voting Patterns: Race, Gender, Age, Marital Status, Region, Religion, etc. (Table 5: Group Voting Patterns in 2008 vs. 2004)

C.Political Attitudes and the Vote: Partisanship, Ideology, Presidential Approval, Domestic and Foreign Policy Issues (Table 6: Political

Attitudes and the Vote in 2008)

D. Evaluations of the Candidates

VI. The Congressional Elections (pp. 51-60)

A. The House Elections

1. Competition in House Elections

a. Vulnerable Incumbents

b. Open Seats

2. The Results

B. The Senate Elections

1. Republican vs. Democratic Seats

2. Vulnerable Incumbents

3. Open Seats

4. The Results

VII. What Comes Next (pp. 61-65)