Demographic Analysis: Projections on Natality, Fertility and Replacement Book

Foreword   Nathan Keyfitz     v
Preface to the English Edition     ix
Translator's Preface     xi
Preliminary Considerations
Subject Matter and Sources of Data     1
Population Census     2
The Census as Portrait of the Population     3
The Census as History of the Population     3
By-Products of the Population Census     4
Population Changes     4
Natality     5
Mortality     5
Extension of the Field of Study and of the Sources     5
Demographic Inquiries     6
Sample Surveys     7
Parish Registers     8
Published Sources of Demographic Statistics     9
French Demographic Statistics     9
American and British Demographic Statistics     11
International Demographic Statistics     11
Demographic Knowledge and Statistical Information     12
Location in Time     13
Geometric Representation of Time Instants and Time Intervals     13
A Terminological Convention     14
Introduction to the Lexis Diagram     15
The Lexis Grid     17
Generation or Cohort Life Lines     17
Ages and Cohorts     19
Double Classification in Demography     23
General Remarks     26
Rates in Demography     29
Crude Rates     29
Computation of Crude Rates     30
Specific Rates     31
Rates by Age     31
Rates by Age Groups     33
Specific Fertility Rates     37
General Fertility Rates     38
Age-Specific Fertility Rates     38
Age-Specific Marriage Rates     42
Limitations of Age-Specific Rates     44
Rates by Birth Cohort     46
Rates by Birth Cohort Groups     47
Choice of Rates     49
American and British Statistics     51
Quotients and Probabilities     53
Infant Mortality Rates     55
Methods of Computing the Infant Mortality Rate     56
Conversion of Rates to an Annual Basis     58
General Considerations and Suggestions     59
Vital Events
Analysis of Vital Events     63
Demography as the Science of Rates     63
Rates and Their Limits     63
Quotients and Tables     64
Period Observations and Cohort Observations      64
Hypothetical Cohorts     65
Study of Real Cohorts     66
Cohort Analysis and Period Analysis     67
A Paradigm in Demography     68
Mortality     71
The Crude Death Rate: Its Variations in Time and Space     71
The Composition of Mortality by Age and Sex     75
Causes of Death     82
Endogenous Mortality and Exogenous Mortality     84
Infant Mortality     84
Past Trends and Present Level of Infant Mortality     87
Biometric Analysis of Infant Mortality     90
Stillbirths and Perinatal Mortality     94
Examples of Biometric Analysis of Infant Mortality     96
Present Level of Endogenous and Exogenous Infant Mortality     100
Comparison of Mortality Levels     101
Use of a Standard Population     101
Use of a Standard Mortality Schedule     104
Life Tables     107
Presentation of the Life Table     107
Life Table Description of Mortality     111
Construction of Life Tables     111
Cohort Life Tables and Period Life Tables     112
Review of Mortality Probabilities     113
Life Table for French Males, 1954-1955      115
Expectation of Life     119
Description of Mortality Using Life Table Functions     124
Mean Length of Life in Different Periods and in Different Countries     128
Abridged Life Tables     132
Approximate Tables     134
Relationship Between Mortality Rates and Mortality Probabilities     135
Construction of the Abridged Life Tables by the Reed-Merrell Method     138
Strictly Period Life Tables     140
Mortality Probabilities Based on Deaths of a Single Calendar Year     141
Projective Mortality Probabilities     144
Strictly Period Life Tables for Multiple-Year Periods     147
Life Table for Children Under One Year of Age     147
Model Life Tables     148
Use of Model Life Tables     149
Marriage     153
Crude Marriage Rates     153
First Marriages     154
Some Comparisons     155
Nuptiality by Cohorts     157
Nuptiality Tables for First Marriages     159
Construction of a Cohort Nuptiality Table     161
Nuptiality Table for Single French Women, 1950-1951     164
Period Nuptiality Tables in the Study of Marriage     165
Some Simple Parameters of the Nuptiality Table     166
Some International Findings     168
The Study of Divorce and of Remarriage     169
The Study of Widowhood     171
Natality-Fertility     172
Introductory Remarks     172
Conventional Rates     174
Crude Birth Rate     174
Specific Fertility Rates     178
The General Fertility Rate     178
Age-Specific Fertility Rates     179
Description of Fertility with the Aid of Age-Specific Rates     180
Computation of Marital Fertility Rates Based on Family Histories     187
The Total Fertility and Gross Reproduction Rates     188
Mean Number of Children per Marriage     190
Analysis Based on Age-Specific Fertility Rates     191
Analysis by Cohorts     195
Duration of Marriage     198
Composition of Cumulative Fertility in a Marriage Cohort     200
Fertility Rates by Duration of Marriage     204
Period Marital Fertility and Duration of Marriage     207
Analysis Based on Fertility Rates by Duration of Marriage     210
Age at Marriage and Duration of Marriage     214
Duration of Marriage and Birth Order      214
Reconstruction of Fertility on the Basis of Family Histories     217
Birth Order     218
Parity Progression Ratios     219
Parity Progression Ratios and Description of Marital Fertility     223
Choice of Marriage Cohorts for the Computation of Parity Progression Ratios     224
The Frequency of First Births in a Marriage Cohort     225
Frequency of Legitimate First Births as a Period Index     228
Computation of Period Parity Progression Ratios Other Than a[subscript 0]     228
Period Parity Progression Ratios Larger Than Unity     232
Parity Progression Ratios as an Analytical Instrument     234
Mean Number of Children per Marriage Based on Period Parity Progression Ratios     239
Parity Progression Ratios for Female Birth Cohorts     241
Statistical Analysis of the Family     243
Some Conventions of Terminology     243
The Family as a Complex Statistical Unit     243
Statistical Materials     244
Populations Studied     245
The Protogenetic Interval     245
Fecundability     246
Fertility of Very Young Women     249
Intergenetic Intervals     250
Comparison of Intergenetic Intervals      251
Final Intervals     255
Fecund Couples and Fertile Couples     256
Concluding Remarks     258
Population Size and Structure
Population Composition     261
Attributes of the Structure of a Population     262
Population Composition by Sex and by Age     263
The Age Pyramid     263
The Study of a Pyramid     272
Forms of Pyramids     273
The Ageing of a Population     277
General Remarks on the Study of Age Composition     282
An Example: The Professional Population     284
Other Types of Composition     287
Age Composition and Marital Status     287
Economic Activity and School Attendance     291
Other Compositional Characteristics     298
Population Models     303
Age Pyramid Associated with a Survival Curve     303
Construction of a Stationary Population     307
Some Properties of Stationary Populations     314
Theoretical Stationary Populations and Real Populations     316
The Stable Population     318
Some Properties of Stable Populations     326
Some Examples of Stable Populations     328
Theoretical Stable Populations and Real Populations     333
Replacement     335
Natural Increase     335
The Rate of Natural Increase: Variations in Time and Space     337
Change in Populations with a Constant Rate of Natural Increase     341
The Over-All Character of the Rate of Natural Increase     344
The Net Reproduction Rate     344
The Period Net Reproduction Rate     346
Gross Rates and Net Rates     349
Net Reproduction Rate and Lotka's Theoretical Results     350
Limitations of the Net Reproduction Rate     352
Growth Potential of a Population     355
The Case of Small Population Groups     356
Population Projections
Introduction to Projections     363
Projections and Predictions     363
Presentation of Demographic Projections     364
Decomposition of a Projective Computation     366
Other Types of Projections     368
Computation of Survivors     371
Introduction to the Chapter     371
The Projective Mortality Probability     372
Present Level and Future Change of Mortality     374
Projective Probabilities and the Life Table     377
Future Change of Projective Probabilities      389
Projective Probabilities and Model Life Tables     392
An Example of Computation of Survivors with Model Life Tables     395
A Very Specific Example     395
Ease and Reliability of Computation of Survivors     400
Projections of Births     402
Projections Using Fertility Indices by Age     402
Projections of Marriages     407
Projections of Legitimate Births by Duration of Marriage     411
Projections of Legitimate Births by Birth Order     414
First-Order Births     414
Total Live Births     417
Choice of Methods and Hypotheses     417
An Example of the Use of Age-Specific Fertility Rates     417
Choice of Indices     420
The Use of Demographic Projections     426
Projections of the School-Age Population     426
A Different Method     429
Choice of Method     430
Projections of the Labor Force     432
Some Remarks     436
General Remarks Concerning the Use of Projections by Age     441
Use of Limiting Hypotheses     442
Mathematics and Demographic Analysis
Description of Demographic Events     447
Mortality      447
Expression for Expectation of Life     452
Analytical Expressions for Mortality Functions     453
An Application     454
Nuptiality     456
Relationships Between Events     457
First Application     459
Second Application     462
Fertility     463
Populations     466
General Relationships     466
Some Population Examples     470
Exponential Populations with Fixed Age Distributions     471
'Malthusian' Populations     473
Stable Populations     474
Stable Populations as Limit Populations     476
Stationary Populations     479
Application     479
Appendix     481
Index     493