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Foreword Martin J. Rees Rees, Martin J.
1 Introduction Nick Bostrom Bostrom, Nick Milan M. Cirkovic Cirkovic, Milan M. 1
Pt. I Background 31
2 Long-term astrophysical processes Fred C. Adams Adams, Fred C. 33
3 Evolution theory and the future of humanity Christopher Wills Wills, Christopher 48
4 Millennial tendencies in responses to apocalyptic threats James J. Hughes Hughes, James J. 73
5 Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks Eliezer Yudkowsky Yudkowsky, Eliezer 91
6 Observation selection effects and global catastrophic risks Milan M. Cirkovic Cirkovic, Milan M. 120
7 Systems-based risk analysis Yacov Y. Haimes Haimes, Yacov Y. 146
8 Catastrophes and insurance Peter Taylor Taylor, Peter 164
9 Public policy towards catastrophe Richard A. Posner Posner, Richard A. 184
Pt. II Risks from nature 203
10 Super-volcanism and other geophysical processes of catastrophic import Michael R. Rampino Rampino, Michael R. 205
11 Hazards from comets and asteroids William Napier Napier, William 222
12 Influence of Supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, and cosmic rays on the terrestrial environment Arnon Dar Dar, Arnon 238
Pt. III Risks from unintended consequences 263
13 Climate change and global risk David Frame Frame, David Myles R. Allen Allen, Myles R. 265
14 Plagues and pandemics: past, present, and future Edwin Dennis Kilbourne Kilbourne, Edwin Dennis 287
15 Artificial Intelligence as a positive and negative factor in global risk Eliezer Yudkowsky Yudkowsky, Eliezer 308
16 Big troubles, imagined and real Frank Wilczek Wilczek, Frank 346
17 Catastrophe, social collapse, and human extinction Robin Hanson Hanson, Robin363
Pt. IV Risks from hostile acts 379
18 The continuing threat of nuclear war Joseph Cirincione Cirincione, Joseph 381
19 Catastrophic nuclear terrorism: a preventable peril Gary Ackerman Ackerman, Gary William C. Potter Potter, William C. 402
20 Biotechnology and biosecurity Ali Nouri Nouri, Ali Christopher F. Chyba Chyba, Christopher F. 450
21 Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk Chris Phoenix Phoenix, Chris Mike Treder Treder, Mike 481
22 The totalitarian threat Bryan Caplan Caplan, Bryan 504
Authors' biographies 520
Index 531
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