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Global Catastrophic Risks Book

Global Catastrophic Risks
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  • Global Catastrophic Risks
  • Written by author Nick Bostrom
  • Published by Oxford University Press, USA, September 2008
  • A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era
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Authors

Foreword Martin J. Rees Rees, Martin J.

1 Introduction Nick Bostrom Bostrom, Nick Milan M. Cirkovic Cirkovic, Milan M. 1

Pt. I Background 31

2 Long-term astrophysical processes Fred C. Adams Adams, Fred C. 33

3 Evolution theory and the future of humanity Christopher Wills Wills, Christopher 48

4 Millennial tendencies in responses to apocalyptic threats James J. Hughes Hughes, James J. 73

5 Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks Eliezer Yudkowsky Yudkowsky, Eliezer 91

6 Observation selection effects and global catastrophic risks Milan M. Cirkovic Cirkovic, Milan M. 120

7 Systems-based risk analysis Yacov Y. Haimes Haimes, Yacov Y. 146

8 Catastrophes and insurance Peter Taylor Taylor, Peter 164

9 Public policy towards catastrophe Richard A. Posner Posner, Richard A. 184

Pt. II Risks from nature 203

10 Super-volcanism and other geophysical processes of catastrophic import Michael R. Rampino Rampino, Michael R. 205

11 Hazards from comets and asteroids William Napier Napier, William 222

12 Influence of Supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, and cosmic rays on the terrestrial environment Arnon Dar Dar, Arnon 238

Pt. III Risks from unintended consequences 263

13 Climate change and global risk David Frame Frame, David Myles R. Allen Allen, Myles R. 265

14 Plagues and pandemics: past, present, and future Edwin Dennis Kilbourne Kilbourne, Edwin Dennis 287

15 Artificial Intelligence as a positive and negative factor in global risk Eliezer Yudkowsky Yudkowsky, Eliezer 308

16 Big troubles, imagined and real Frank Wilczek Wilczek, Frank 346

17 Catastrophe, social collapse, and human extinction Robin Hanson Hanson, Robin363

Pt. IV Risks from hostile acts 379

18 The continuing threat of nuclear war Joseph Cirincione Cirincione, Joseph 381

19 Catastrophic nuclear terrorism: a preventable peril Gary Ackerman Ackerman, Gary William C. Potter Potter, William C. 402

20 Biotechnology and biosecurity Ali Nouri Nouri, Ali Christopher F. Chyba Chyba, Christopher F. 450

21 Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk Chris Phoenix Phoenix, Chris Mike Treder Treder, Mike 481

22 The totalitarian threat Bryan Caplan Caplan, Bryan 504

Authors' biographies 520

Index 531


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