Unlocking Opportunities for Growth: How to Profit from Uncertainty While Limiting Your Risk Book

About the Authors     xi
Foreword     xiii
Breaking the Go/No Go Vise Grip on Innovative Growth     1
Making Uncertainty Work for You     3
Managing Uncertainty     5
NPV and DCF: When and When Not to Use Them     6
The Opportunity Engineering Process     9
Illustrative Case Study 1: Entering a Foreign Market     9
Illustrative Case Study 2: New Production Process     14
Another Source of Engineered Value: Trade or Sale of Uncertain Assets for Cash or Equity in Other Assets     18
How to Engineer Opportunities: Stage I: DDP     21
Framing Your Challenges and Your Key Vulnerabilities     21
Ergonomic Desk Project     21
More on the Consumption Chain     36
How to Engineer Opportunities: Stage II: CheckPointing     41
Structuring Your Approach to Ramping Up Your Reach and Eradicating Your Risk     41
Identifying Engineering Opportunities to Increase Reach and Reduce Risk     43
Office Desk Revisited     45
Case 2: Opportunity Engineering Charting: Tasmanian Devil Project     60
Creating an Engineered Growth Portfolio     71
Building an Engineered Growth Portfolio     73
New Product Opportunities     75
New Market Opportunities     77
Long-Reach Opportunities     80
Growth Pathways     82
Core Enhancements     84
How to Use the Engineered Growth Portfolio     86
Plotting Projects in the Engineered Growth Portfolio     90
Applying Opportunity Engineering Throughout Your Business     95
Joint Ventures, Licenses, and Alliances     95
Ramping Up the Complexity     98
Scenario Planning     100
Mergers and Acquisitions     103
Entering New Markets     112
Opportunity Engineering in Major Contract Negotiations     114
Strategic Planning under Uncertainty     119
Managing Not-for-Profit Projects     120
Project Valuation Using EVS Software     123
R&D Project Example     124
Valuing "What If" Future Events     135
Other EVS Functions     137
Cumulative Mass Function of EV     137
More Complex Projects     140
The Underpinnings of the EVS Software     143
Notes: EVS Formulation     147
Bibliography     149
Index     155