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Figures and Tables | ||
Foreword | ||
Preface to the Third Edition | ||
Introduction | ||
1 | The Long Wave of History | 1 |
Historical Origins: the Big Bang | 2 | |
The Wave in Descent | 7 | |
Worldview | 11 | |
2 | The National Economic Accounting System | 15 |
The Structure of the Accounts | 16 | |
The Measure of Output and Expenditure | 29 | |
The Income Side of the Accounts | 38 | |
Relations Between the Output and Income Sides of the Accounts | 49 | |
Housing in the National Accounts | 52 | |
Saving and Investment in the National Accounts | 54 | |
The Federal Government in the National Accounts | 58 | |
Long-Term Trends in the National Accounts | 59 | |
Actual and Middle-Expansion Trend Output | 61 | |
3 | The Data Stream | 64 |
The Personal Sector: Income, Spending, Credit Use | 64 | |
The Housing Market | 68 | |
Capital Spending and Its Sources | 70 | |
Accounting for Corporate Profits | 73 | |
The Manufacturing Industries: Production, Sales, Inventories, Orders | 76 | |
Employment and Unemployment | 79 | |
Prices, Wages, and Productivity | 82 | |
Financial Data: The Capital Markets | 87 | |
4 | How to Watch the Business Cycle | 91 |
The Cycle in the Statistics | 97 | |
Foreshadowing Statistics | 103 | |
Other Indicators of the Cycle | 103 | |
5 | The Influence of Economic Policy | 112 |
Fiscal Policy | 113 | |
Fiscal Flux | 119 | |
Monetary Policy | 125 | |
The Condition of Financial Markets | 128 | |
6 | The United States in the World | 138 |
7 | Inflation and Economic Policies | 148 |
8 | The Wave of the Future | 160 |
The Growth Rate Itself | 162 | |
The Trend in the Labor Force | 165 | |
The Productivity Outlook | 167 | |
A Laboring Government | 168 | |
The United States in the World: An Emerging Normal | 171 | |
Private-Sector Considerations | 173 | |
The Social Burden | 176 | |
The Ethical Burden | 177 | |
Conclusions | 179 | |
9 | Epilogue: A Footnote on the Mixed Economy | 182 |
Appendix A: Alphabetical List of Series | 187 | |
Appendix B: Approximate Release Dates for Monthly Statistics | 191 | |
Appendix C: Approximate Release Dates for Quarterly Statistics | 192 | |
About the Authors | 193 | |
About The Conference Board | 194 |
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