Evidential Foundations of Probabilistic Reasoning Book

	Preface
	Acknowledgments
1	A Discourse on Evidence	1
1.1	Finding Common Ground	1
1.2	Is a General Discourse on Evidence Necessary?	4
1.3	Can There Be a Science of Evidence?	6
1.4	A Look Ahead	8
2	The Study of Evidence	11
2.1	Evidence, Observations, and Abstractions	11
2.2	Rhetoric, Logic and Philosophy	22
2.3	Evidence, Probability, and Statistics	34
2.4	Evidence in Jurisprudence: "Beating and Boulting the Truth"	54
2.5	Theories of Evidence: Argument Structure and Evidential Force	62
2.6	Discovering Evidence	64
3	Structural Issues I: Studying the Properties of Evidence	66
3.1	Relevance and Argument	67
3.2	The Foundations of Argument	92
3.3	Relevance, Credibility, and Ancillary Evidence	109
3.4	Common Forms of Evidence	114
3.5	Recurrent Combinations of Evidence	120
4	Structural Issues II: Inferences Based Upon a Mass of Evidence	131
4.1	Mixtures of Evidential Forms, Combinations, and Subtleties	132
4.2	Structuring and Standpoint	135
4.3	Relevance and Causality	140
4.4	Inference Networks I: Wigmore and His Contemporary Advocates	156
4.5	Inference Networks II: Modern Conceptions	169
4.6	Other Structures: Narratives, Stories, and Scenarios	195
5	On the Inferential Force of Evidence	200
5.1	The Force of Evidence: Historical Comments	201
5.2	Grading the Force of Evidence	206
5.3	Pascalian Gradations of the Force of Evidence	213
5.4	Belief Functions: Grading Evidential Support	222
5.5	The Weight of Evidence in Eliminative and Variative Inference	243
5.6	Evidence, Inference, and Imprecision	261
6	The Analysis of Evidential Properties and Subtleties	270
6.1	Combining Structural and Probabilistic Concepts	270
6.2	Some Interesting Evidential Properties and Subtleties	278
6.3	Analytic Objectives and Methods	284
7	Analyses of Isolated Items of Evidence	290
7.1	Evidence and Singly Connected Chains of Reasoning	290
7.2	Chains of Reasoning and Conditional Nonindependence	309
7.3	Credibility and the Force of Evidence	313
7.4	Secondhand Evidence	344
7.5	Equivocal Testimony	350
7.6	Missing Evidence	357
7.7	On the Discovery and Force of Negative Evidence	361
7.8	A Return to Bernoulli's Evidential Distinctions	364
8	Analyses of Recurrent Combinations of Evidence	366
8.1	On the Force of Dissonant Evidence	367
8.2	On the Force of Harmonious Evidence	390
8.3	Patterns of Evidential Harmony and Dissonance	409
8.4	The Two Faces on Evidential Redundance	417
8.5	Other Recurrent Combinations of Evidence	444
9	Discovery and the Generation of Evidence	450
9.1	Discovery in Various Contexts	452
9.2	Discovery and Imaginative Reasoning	460
9.3	Evidence, Signs, and Semiotics	476
9.4	Strategies for Marshaling Thought and Evidence during Discovery	489
10	End of Discourse	505
10.1	Evidence, Argument Structures, and Probabilities	508
10.2	Discovering and Marshaling Evidence	512
10.3	Final Words	514
	References	515
	Name Index	531
	Subject Index	537