The Formation of Econometrics : A Historical Perspective Book

	Introduction	1
1	The Probability Foundations of Econometrics	7
1.1	The Eve of the Probability Revolution	9
1.2	Introduction of Probability Theory	13
1.3	The Haavelmo Revolution	19
1.4	Alternative Approaches	26
1.5	An Incomplete Revolution	31
2	Model Construction	37
2.1	Econometric Measurement without Models	38
2.2	Emergence of Structural Model Construction	44
2.3	Formalization of Structural Model Formulation	52
2.4	Maturity of Simultaneous-Equations Model Formulation	58
3	Estimation	65
3.1	From LS to ML Estimation before Haavelmo's Revolution	66
3.2	ML Estimation of Simultaneous-Equations Systems	72
3.3	Estimation with Special Concerns for Time-Series Data	79
3.4	Other Estimation Methods for Errors-in-Variables Models	84
3.5	From ML back to LS, Completion of Estimation Procedure for Simultaneous-Equations Systems	88
4	Identification	95
4.1	Taking Shape	96
4.2	Initial Systematization	102
4.3	The First Explicit Formalization	108
4.4	Further Developments	113
5	Testing	121
5.1	Antecedents	122
5.2	Adoption of the Hypothesis-Testing Framework and Invention of Econometric Tests	129
5.3	Hypothesis-Testing via Model Evaluation in Applied Econometrics	135
5.4	Diagnostic Tests for Model Evaluation in Theoretical Econometrics	141
6	Model Construction Revisited	149
6.1	Testing and Model Construction	150
6.2	Identification and Model Construction	158
6.3	Estimation and Model Construction	164
6.4	Model Construction and the Probability Approach	175
	The History Revisited	183
	Bibliography	189
	Index of Names	207
	Index of Subjects	210