The Dynamics of Rational Deliberation Book

Preface

1. Principles of Rational Decision

Two Paradigms of Rational Decision

Expected Utility

The Theory of Games

Integrating the Two Paradigms

2. Dynamic Deliberation: Equilibria

Deliberational Dynamics and Game Theory

Deliberational Equilibria

Games Played by Bayesian Deliberators

Equilibrium Selection

The Bayes Dynamics

Refinements of the Nash Equilibrium for the Normal Form

Refinements of the Nash Equilibrium for the Extensive Form

Correlated Equilibria

Equilibria and Rationality

3. Dynamic Deliberation: Stability

Dynamic Stability of Equilibria

Imprecise Priors and Elicitation through Deliberation

Structural Stability I

Structural Stability II

Stability and Rationality

4. The Value of Knowledge

Good Thinking

Probable Knowledge

Ramsey's Anticipation

Dynamic Probability and Generalized Learning

Generalized Learning Generalized

Generalized Causal Decision Theory

Deliberational Equilibrium Reconsidered

M Is for Martingale

5. Dynamic Coherence

Pumping Gold

Coherent Expectations

Utility Prevision and Measure

Coherent Preferences and Upper and Lower Probabilities

Dynamic Coherence

Bayes' Rule

Bayes' Method

Probability Kinematics

Black-Box Learning and Higher-Order Probabilities

Rules and Reference

Coherence and Deliberation

6. Good Habits

On the Rational Stability of Good Habits

Finite Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma

Beyond Common Knowledge of Rationality

Choosing Good Habits

Just Habits

The Social Contract Revisited

Taking Turns

Good Habits and Game Theory

7. Prospects for a Theory of Rational Deliberation

Consistency Proofs

Causal Independence and Rationalizability

Nash Equilibrium Reconsidered

Dynamics

Fictitious Play by Carnapians

More Sophisticated Deliberators

The Tracing Procedure

Toward a Theory of Dynamic Deliberation

Appendix. Deliberational Dynamics on Your Personal Computer

Notes

References

Index