Energy and Climate: How to Achieve a Successful Energy Transition Book

SCI Preface ix

Preface xi

About the Author xv

Introduction xvii

1 Energy in a Globalised World 1

The fundamental role of energy in the economy 1

Current predominance of fossil energies 2

Uses of energy 3

Restricted number of suppliers 5

Energy and globalisation of the economy 7

The increasing role of the emerging countries 8

Future outlook 9

2 Growing Risks Ahead 11

The risks associated with energy consumption 11

The growing demand 11

Unequal access to energy 13

Risks for the long-term energy supply 13

Greater vulnerability of consumer countries 14

Dependency of transport on oil 15

Effects of energy consumption on the environment at local and regional levels 16

Risks for the environment at world level 18

Growing threats 18

Interruption in the supply of hydrocarbons 18

An environmental disaster 19

3 The Threat of Climate Change 21

A major risk for the planet 21

The greenhouse effect 22

The impact of greenhouse gas emissions on climate change 23

Symptoms of climate change 25

Positive retroaction and tipping points 27

Kyoto protocol and post-Kyoto 29

The factor 4 problem 31

The current trend 32

Urgency of the actions to be undertaken 33

4 The Essential Energy Transition 35

The need for change 35

Threats to be removed 36

Acting from a perspective of sustainable development 37

The need for global regulation and governance 38

Energy alternatives 40

A long transition 40

Making the transition 42

The need to innovate 42

Means of action 43

Energy supply and demand axis 44

Carbon balance axis 44

A global transition 46

5 Reducing Energy Consumption, while Protecting the Environment 49

From megawatts tonegawatts 49

The evolution of the energy intensity 50

Renewing the organisation of housing and transport 52

Towards the positive energy building 54

Reduction of energy consumption in the transport sector 56

Hybrid propulsion 58

Energy storage 59

New agricultural production modes 62

More efficient industrial processes 63

Waste treatment and materials recycling 63

Research actions required 65

6 Reducing the Energy Carbon Content 67

The carbon content of the primary energy supply 67

Carbon intensity 68

Energy carbon content reduction pathways 69

Revival of nuclear energy 70

Renewable energy prospects 74

Wind energy: an already mature energy 75

The promise of solar energy 76

Advantages and limitations of geothermal energy 78

Biomass energy and biofuels: potentialities and risks 79

The role of hydrogen 82

Hybridisation of sources 85

Research actions required 87

7 Securing the Supplies of Fossil Fuels 89

The role of fossil fuels 89

The end of abundant and cheap oil 90

Oil reserves: the present situation 91

Towards a more technological oil 93

Extra-heavy oils and shales 96

Natural gas 97

The comeback of coal 99

Synthetic fuels 102

Research actions required 104

8 CO2 Capture and Storage 105

Stakes ahead 105

Carbon sinks 106

CO2 capture and transport 107

Geological storage 109

Storage in depleted oil and gas fields 111

Storage in deep saline aquifers 111

Storage in unexploited coal seams 112

Industrial applications of CO2 capture and storage 112

Geological storage operations worldwide 114

Legal and social framework for geological storage 115

Longer term perspectives: mineral sequestration and CO2 recycling 116

The role of CO2 geological storage 118

Research actions required 119

9 How to Ensure the Energy Transition? 121

The conditions required for a successful transition 121

Implementing an acceptable evolution scenario 122

Reaching the required goals 123

Future outlook 125

Ensuring technological progress 126

A new lifestyle 129

A new project for the future society 130

Conclusion 131

Appendices 133

Appendix 1 Energy and power 133

Appendix 2 Conversions and equivalences between units 134

Appendix 3 Abbreviations and acronyms 134

References 137

Web sites 143

Index 147