Tomorrow's Cities, Tomorrow's Suburbs Book

Preface

Acknowledgements

List of Figures

List of Tables

List of Maps

List of Acronyms

PART 1. THEMES AND POLICY APPROACHES

1.  Is the Past Prologue for Change?

Disparities in Relative Income

Growth, Sprawl, and Disparities

Housing Markets, Mobility, and Federal Policies

Consumerism and Careerism

Local Government Development Decisions

Tyranny of Easy Development Decisions

Beliefs and Public Policies

Order of Chapters

Beliefs and Practice

2.  Too Little Housing in Policy Critiques

Land Consumption

Poverty Concentrations

Taxable Resource Inequalities

Racial Segregation in Suburbs

Market Tests and Spatial Inequalities

Proposed Remedies

Mega-Decisions and Daily Life

Decisions and Small-Scale Policies

PART II.  CITIES AND SUBURBS: TRENDS AND INTERPRETATIONS

3.  Exaggerating City Population Decline

Twentieth-Century Trends

Population and Occupied Housing Changes

Cities' Evolution from 1950 to 1970

Downtown Population Changes

Racial Change

Population and Housing in 50 States

Variation by Size and Region

Immigration

Beliefs and Preferences

Demand Increased

4.  Housing and Cities' Prospects

Summary of Findings

The Relative Income Measure

Disparities between Cities and Suburbs

542 Cities

Region and Population

Nonstable Cities

White Flight?

Home Ownership

Relative Income in Six Central Cities

Poverty in Cities

Concentrated Neighborhood Poverty

Single-Unit Structures and Home Ownership

Single-Unit Structures and Relative Income

Small Houses, Ownership,and Relative Income

Condominiums

Housing Past and Future

Post-2000 Trends in Cities

5.  Scoping Suburban Decline

Summary of Results

Suburban Dominance

City Decline and Metropolitan Growth

Ring, Sector, and Scattered Population Decline

Population Size in Suburbs

Severe Suburban Population Loss

Prospects for Increasing Density

Suburban Density

Immigrants

Suburban Decline in the 1960s and 1970s

Average Household Size, Families with Children, and the Elderly

High Elderly Populations

Average Household Size and Occupied Housing Units

Suburban Trends

Methods

6.  Discovering Poor Suburbs

Summary of Findings

Methodology

Relative Income Conditions and Trends

Regions and Growth Matter Little

Spatial Patterns

Growing Suburbs and Metropolitan Areas

Population Size and Income Changes

City and Suburb Incomes

The Lowest Relative Income Suburbs

Poverty in Suburbs

Poverty in Suburban Neighborhoods

Income Changes in the 1980s and 1990s

Decline in Old and Middle-Aged Suburbs

Volatility in Suburbs

Suburban Income Change Variations

Metropolitan Profiles of Income Changes

Summary and Interpretation

7.  Do Middle-Aged Suburbs Need to Reinvent Themselves?b

Summary of Findings

Three Theories:  Population, Contagion, and Age of Housing

Methodology

Describing and Explaining Income Transitions

Scale and Time

Decade of Housing Construction and Relative Income Changes

Factors in Differentiating Neighborhoods

Interpretation

8.  Discovering Virtues of Old Neighborhoods

Units of Analysis

Relative Income and Decade of Construction

Neighborhood Life Cycles

Income Increases in Neighborhoods in the 1980s and 1990s

Evidence for Trickle-Down Neighborhood Change

Counting Census Tracts

Comparing the 1990s and 1980s

Which Old Neighborhoods Increased in Relative Income

Differences among Metropolitan Areas

Summary of Trends

Impending Suburban Triumph from a 1950 Perspective

PART III.  BELIEFS AND PLACES

9.  Linking Patterns, Beliefs, and Policies

A Policy Debate about Trickle-Down Neighborhood Change

Influences on Preferences

Conditions and Ideas Influence Beliefs and Actions

Consumer Preferences for Neighborhood Settings

Crime Rates Fell in the 1990s

Beliefs about Health and Motor Vehicle Safety

Demography Alters the Distribution of Location Preferences

Results Matter

Myths and Mega-Decisions

10.  The Cul-de-Sac Safety Myth: Housing Markets and Settlement Patterns

The Issue

History

Effects of Street Networks on Safety

11.  The Myth of Exurban Safety and Rational Location Decisions

Comparative Danger

Homicides, Violent Crime, and Traffic Fatalities

Low Density, Speed, and Traffic Deaths

Homicides by Family Members, Acquaintances, and Strangers

Traffic Fatality Rates in Cities, Suburbs, and Exurbs

Narrow Roads and Aggressive Driving

Awareness of Dangers

Misinformation, Miscalculations, and misdirected Emotions

Danger of Leaving Home

Fear of Crime

Sex, Insurance, and Traffic Information

12.  The Past and Future of Small House Neighborhoods

Contemporary "Happy" Residence Beliefs

New House Profiles

Why Small House Expansion and Adaptation is Difficult

Why the Suburbs' Mid-Life Crisis May Get Worse

Institutions and Finance

A Case Study of Problems, Opportunities, and Policies

Relative Income and Family Poverty

Reversal of Neighborhood Trends and Age of Housing

Henrico's 60 Census Tracts

What Happened in Small House Neighborhoods?

Henrico's Public Policy Responses

Central City Versus Suburban Prospects

13.  Can Local Policies Make a Difference?

Downtown Revival Despite Sprawl

Charlottesville's Downtown Revival and Beyond

Transit-Oriented Development

Arlington and Alexandria

Middle-Class Location Decisions and Small Houses

Chicago's Historic Bungalows

Single-Unit Dwellings

Condominiums Increase Ownership

Enhancing Decentralized Decisions

Investments Decisions

14.  Prospects for Stability and Revival

Variation and Uncertainty

Regionalism

Beliefs Relevant to Location Decisions

Beliefs, Roles, and Policies

Markets and Decentralized Decisions

Where Next?

Index